MLB matchup analysis
Mets vs Pirates Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, August 9, 2026 at PNC Park · 1:35 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Mets vs Pirates
The case for New York Mets
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, August 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 PM ET |
| Venue | PNC Park |
| Starting pitchers | Sean Manaea vs Jared Jones |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 83°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Mets | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 60 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.33 | 4.02 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.38 | 1.11 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.8 | 10.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.0% | 20.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.1% | 27.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.2% | 7.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.1% | 41.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 55.9% | 59.0% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Jared Jones a 5-point edge over Sean Manaea, driven mainly by WHIP (1.11 vs 1.38) and K-BB% (20.1% vs 14.0%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Mets are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10, averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. On the season Pirates carry the better run differential per game (+0.26 against -0.45).
| Metric | Mets | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.715 | 0.664 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.315 | 0.299 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.0% | 23.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Mets | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.696 (+0.007 vs szn) | 0.692 (-0.056 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.92 (-0.219 vs szn) | 4.36 (-0.690 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.308 | 0.309 (-0.023 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.7% (+3.0% vs szn) | 25.4% (+1.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Pirates have been the better offense, 0.309 wOBA to 0.308. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.023 wOBA). Mets are striking out at 25.7% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Mets | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 51-67 | 58-61 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.45 | +0.26 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.14 | 5.05 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.58 | 4.79 |
| Season OPS | 0.689 | 0.748 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.7% | 24.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.680 | 0.690 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mets and Pirates are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Mets | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.6/10, Tired | 6.2/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.9/10, Effective | 5.1/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.2/10, Tired | 6.2/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.0 | 30.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 2 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.52 | 4.15 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.36 | 1.22 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.7 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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