MLB matchup analysis
Tigers vs Giants Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, August 9, 2026 at Oracle Park · 4:05 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Detroit Tigers moneyline
The case for Detroit Tigers
The case for San Francisco Giants
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
Detroit Tigers remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.7/10: conviction 11.54, pitching plan 13, bullpen 17.08, offense 25. LyDia projects 56.6% against a 53.3% no-vig market number, a 3.3% model edge at -116. Detroit Tigers owns the starting pitcher edge by 10 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. Detroit Tigers's pen efficiency: Effective (6.8/10). Lineup check: Detroit Tigers is swinging a hot bat (+0.148 OPS); San Francisco Giants is a touch below its season form (-0.049 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, August 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Oracle Park |
| Starting pitchers | Troy Melton vs Logan Webb |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 74°F, 0% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Tigers | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6⅓ | 6⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 83 | 73 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 1.58 | 3.74 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.91 | 1.11 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.8 | 7.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.4% | 13.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.5% | 19.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.1% | 6.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.7% | 60.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 53.3% | 39.9% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Troy Melton a 10-point edge over Logan Webb, driven mainly by ERA (1.58 vs 3.74) and WHIP (0.91 vs 1.11).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Tigers are 7-3 in their last 10, averaging 7.5 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Giants are 4-6 in their last 10, averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. On the season Tigers carry the better run differential per game (+0.73 against -0.52).
| Metric | Tigers | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.880 | 0.668 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.383 | 0.300 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 7.5 | 4.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 18.5% | 20.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Tigers | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.801 (+0.069 vs szn) | 0.666 (-0.051 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.88 (+1.294 vs szn) | 4.13 (-0.012 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.350 (+0.027 vs szn) | 0.297 (-0.017 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.1% (-1.5% vs szn) | 21.2% |
Over the last 30 days the Tigers have been the better offense, 0.350 wOBA to 0.297. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.027 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Tigers | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 57-60 | 49-68 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.73 | -0.52 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.58 | 4.14 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.85 | 4.66 |
| Season OPS | 0.732 | 0.717 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.6% | 20.9% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.742 | 0.734 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Tigers and Giants are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Tigers | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.1/10, Normal | 8.5/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.8/10, Effective | 3.9/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 4.2/10, Normal | 9.1/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 17.3 | 27.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 1 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.08 | 4.94 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.92 | 1.76 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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