MLB matchup analysis
Angels vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, September 7, 2026 at Fenway Park · 1:35 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Angels vs Red Sox
The case for Boston Red Sox
The case for Los Angeles Angels
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, September 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 PM ET |
| Venue | Fenway Park |
| Starting pitchers | Grayson Rodriguez vs Brayan Bello |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 81°F, 0% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Angels | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 41 | 54 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 6.28 | 4.82 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.57 | 1.45 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.3 | 6.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.3% | 9.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 20.3% | 17.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.0% | 7.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.1 | 3.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.9% | 60.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 57.1% | 39.4% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Brayan Bello a 13-point edge over Grayson Rodriguez, driven mainly by ERA (4.82 vs 6.28) and HR/9 (0.96 vs 1.54).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 3.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Red Sox are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Red Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.60 against -0.54).
| Metric | Angels | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 2-8 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.598 | 0.722 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.270 | 0.319 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.6% | 20.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Angels | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.608 (-0.068 vs szn) | 0.744 (+0.015 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.46 (-0.550 vs szn) | 4.33 (-0.129 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.274 (-0.028 vs szn) | 0.329 (+0.007 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.6% | 19.9% (-1.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Red Sox have been the better offense, 0.329 wOBA to 0.274. Angels are striking out at 25.6% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Angels | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 54-89 | 79-65 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.54 | +0.60 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.03 | 4.46 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.57 | 3.86 |
| Season OPS | 0.677 | 0.729 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.3% | 21.3% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.678 | 0.714 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Angels and Red Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Angels | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 3.8/10, Normal | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.5/10, Below average | 5.1/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 4.6/10, Normal | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 13.0 | 24.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.54 | 4.01 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.77 | 1.30 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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