MLB matchup analysis
Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, September 7, 2026 at Citizens Bank Park · 1:05 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Philadelphia Phillies moneyline
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
The case for Atlanta Braves
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Philadelphia Phillies remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.1/10: conviction 7.44, pitching plan 38.67, offense 24.71. LyDia projects 69.9% against a 79.3% no-vig market number, a -9.4% model edge at -167. Philadelphia Phillies owns the starting pitcher edge by 13 points. Bullpen read: Neutral. Philadelphia Phillies's pen efficiency: Average (4.8/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 20.0 points from 89.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 69.9%. Lineup check: Philadelphia Phillies is in a cold stretch (-0.059 OPS); Atlanta Braves is near its season form (+0.008 OPS). Recent form leans against this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Braves 0, Phillies 1
How the analysis held up
Philadelphia Phillies won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Jesús Luzardo (Philadelphia Phillies), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Grant Holmes: 9.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
Game information
| Matchup | Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, September 7, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Citizens Bank Park |
| Starting pitchers | Grant Holmes vs Jesús Luzardo |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 80°F, 0% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Braves | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 6 |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 66 | 79 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.46 | 2.87 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.29 | 1.08 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.2 | 11.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 9.1% | 23.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.9% | 30.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.8% | 7.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.1% | 56.3% |
| Fly-ball rate | 52.9% | 43.7% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Jesús Luzardo a 13-point edge over Grant Holmes, driven mainly by K-BB% (23.2% vs 9.1%) and K/9 (11.1 vs 7.2).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Braves carry the better run differential per game (+0.83 against +0.24).
| Metric | Braves | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.730 | 0.653 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.319 | 0.291 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.4% | 20.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Braves | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.662 (-0.060 vs szn) | 0.726 (+0.014 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.39 (-1.225 vs szn) | 4.67 (+0.208 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.292 (-0.025 vs szn) | 0.320 (+0.006 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.6% (+2.7% vs szn) | 17.8% (-4.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Phillies have been the better offense, 0.320 wOBA to 0.292. Braves are striking out at 24.6% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Braves | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 85-58 | 80-63 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.83 | +0.24 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.62 | 4.46 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.79 | 4.22 |
| Season OPS | 0.722 | 0.712 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.9% | 22.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.707 | 0.712 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Braves and Phillies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Braves | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.7/10, Normal | 5.2/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.5/10, Effective | 4.8/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 5.0/10, Normal | 5.3/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.0 | 15.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.62 | 4.70 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.96 | 1.24 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 6.1 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every LyDia pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. LyDia provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.