MLB matchup analysis
Astros vs Yankees Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at Yankee Stadium · 7:05 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Houston Astros moneyline
The case for Houston Astros
The case for New York Yankees
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Houston Astros remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.6/10: conviction 7.87, pitching plan 27, bullpen 3.38, offense 27.83. LyDia projects 70.7% against a 44.5% no-vig market number, a 26.3% model edge at +119. Houston Astros owns the starting pitcher edge by 18 points. Bullpen read: Adds caution. Houston Astros's pen efficiency: Below average (3.9/10). Pitching plan: TBD 4.5 IP + remaining bullpen 4.5 IP. Bullpen fatigue, efficiency, and combined risk grade only the innings assigned to the bullpen. Lineup check: Houston Astros is in a cold stretch (-0.050 OPS); New York Yankees is a touch below its season form (-0.024 OPS).
Game information
| Matchup | Houston Astros at New York Yankees |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, August 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Yankee Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Peter Lambert vs TBD |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 77°F, 0% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Astros | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Role unknown |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | Not available |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 68 | 50 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.68 | Not available |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.20 | Not available |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.8 | Not available |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.0% | Not available |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.3% | Not available |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.3% | Not available |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.5 | Not available |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | Not available |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.5% | Not available |
| Fly-ball rate | 62.5% | Not available |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Peter Lambert a 18-point edge over TBD, driven mainly by expected innings (5.6 vs 4.5).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Astros are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Yankees are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.75 against -0.32).
| Metric | Astros | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.680 | 0.694 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.294 | 0.308 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.9% | 26.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Astros | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.738 (+0.008 vs szn) | 0.662 (-0.056 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.64 (+0.057 vs szn) | 3.77 (-0.704 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.322 | 0.294 (-0.022 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.1% | 26.4% (+1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Astros have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.294. Yankees are striking out at 26.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Astros | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 66-66 | 74-57 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.32 | +0.75 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.58 | 4.47 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.90 | 3.73 |
| Season OPS | 0.730 | 0.718 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 24.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | Not available | 0.716 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Yankees are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Astros | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.2/10, Tired | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.9/10, Below average | 5.7/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.8/10, Tired | 6.1/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 27.7 | 25.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.86 | 3.51 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.37 | 1.09 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.9 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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