MLB matchup analysis
Dodgers vs Braves Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at Truist Park · 7:15 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for Atlanta Braves
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Los Angeles Dodgers is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 72.1% model win probability and 8.0/10 Lab Rating. LyDia projects 72.1% against a 54.1% no-vig market number, a 18.0% model edge at -122. Los Angeles Dodgers owns the starting pitcher edge by 27 points. Bullpen read: Neutral. Los Angeles Dodgers's pen efficiency: Effective (6.6/10). Pitching plan: AJ Smith-Shawver 4.3 IP + remaining bullpen 4.7 IP. Bullpen fatigue, efficiency, and combined risk grade only the innings assigned to the bullpen. Lineup check: Los Angeles Dodgers is in a cold stretch (-0.055 OPS); Atlanta Braves is in a cold stretch (-0.108 OPS).
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, August 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Truist Park |
| Starting pitchers | Roki Sasaki vs AJ Smith-Shawver |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 89°F, 12% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Dodgers | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Limited starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 4⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 61 | 34 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.42 | 6.23 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.30 | 1.62 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.8 | 7.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.8% | 5.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.1% | 17.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.3% | 12.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.6 | 5.2 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.0% | 47.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 48.0% | 52.6% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Roki Sasaki a 27-point edge over AJ Smith-Shawver, driven mainly by K-BB% (13.8% vs 5.0%) and BB/9 (3.6 vs 5.2).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Braves are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 2.9 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+1.14 against +0.84).
| Metric | Dodgers | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.706 | 0.614 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.310 | 0.273 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.5 | 2.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.7% | 23.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Dodgers | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.717 (-0.044 vs szn) | 0.672 (-0.050 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.23 (-0.739 vs szn) | 3.63 (-1.052 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.314 (-0.020 vs szn) | 0.297 (-0.021 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.4% | 23.0% (+1.4% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Dodgers have been the better offense, 0.314 wOBA to 0.297. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.020 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Dodgers | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 80-52 | 77-55 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.14 | +0.84 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.97 | 4.68 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.83 | 3.84 |
| Season OPS | 0.761 | 0.722 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.6% | 21.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.767 | 0.725 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Dodgers and Braves are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Dodgers | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.1/10, Normal | 5.3/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.6/10, Effective | 6.8/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 4.3/10, Normal | 4.4/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 16.7 | 19.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.70 | 1.37 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.84 | 1.22 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.1 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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