MLB matchup analysis
Red Sox vs Marlins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at loanDepot park · 6:40 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Boston Red Sox moneyline
The case for Boston Red Sox
The case for Miami Marlins
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Boston Red Sox is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 70.7% model win probability and 8.3/10 Lab Rating. LyDia projects 70.7% against a 58.8% no-vig market number, a 11.9% model edge at -154. Boston Red Sox owns the starting pitcher edge by 16 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. Boston Red Sox's pen efficiency: Effective (6.6/10). Pitching plan: Ryan Gusto 4.0 IP + remaining bullpen 5.0 IP. Bullpen fatigue, efficiency, and combined risk grade only the innings assigned to the bullpen. Lineup check: Boston Red Sox is swinging a hot bat (+0.086 OPS); Miami Marlins is a touch below its season form (-0.042 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, August 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | loanDepot park |
| Starting pitchers | Sonny Gray vs Ryan Gusto |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 78°F, 15% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from SW. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Red Sox | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Limited starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 4 |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 75 | 59 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.79 | 4.37 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.16 | 1.34 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.5% | 14.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.8% | 20.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.4% | 5.9% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 47.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.0% | 52.8% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Sonny Gray a 16-point edge over Ryan Gusto, driven mainly by expected innings (5.8 vs 4.0) and ERA (2.79 vs 4.37).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Marlins are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 3.9 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Red Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.80 against +0.11).
| Metric | Red Sox | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.817 | 0.684 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.357 | 0.308 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.4 | 3.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 17.8% | 22.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Red Sox | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.818 (+0.087 vs szn) | 0.713 (-0.013 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.79 (+1.240 vs szn) | 4.22 (-0.124 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.357 (+0.034 vs szn) | 0.319 |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.9% (-2.4% vs szn) | 21.3% |
Over the last 30 days the Red Sox have been the better offense, 0.357 wOBA to 0.319. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.034 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Red Sox | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 73-59 | 67-66 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.80 | +0.11 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.55 | 4.35 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.75 | 4.23 |
| Season OPS | 0.731 | 0.726 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.3% | 21.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.718 | 0.736 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Red Sox and Marlins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Red Sox | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.6/10, Tired | 10.0/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.6/10, Effective | 5.3/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.8/10, Tired | 9.9/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.0 | 23.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.57 | 4.18 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.30 | 1.10 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.3 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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