MLB matchup analysis
Cardinals vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 10:10 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Cardinals vs Dodgers
The case for St. Louis Cardinals
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Cardinals 13, Dodgers 8
How the analysis held up
St. Louis Cardinals won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Michael McGreevy (St. Louis Cardinals), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Eric Lauer: 5.0 IP, 4 ER (7.20 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 7 ER (21.00 ERA). The edge held up. Neither starter actually pitched well tonight, though — this is a smaller-of-two-bads comparison, not a starter who dealt.
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 4.0 innings (4.50 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 2 of the runs charged to the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 5 earned runs allowed over 6.0 relief innings (7.50 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Los Angeles Dodgers pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
St. Louis Cardinals scored 13, 8 more than the 5 pregame projection.
Los Angeles Dodgers scored 8, 3.8 more than the 4.2 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 1, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 PM ET |
| Venue | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Michael McGreevy vs Eric Lauer |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 74°F, 0% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cardinals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5 |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 65 | 58 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.86 | 4.78 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.25 | 1.26 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.2% | 8.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 16.7% | 15.6% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.5% | 7.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.8% | 35.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 48.2% | 65.0% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Michael McGreevy a 7-point edge over Eric Lauer, driven mainly by HR/9 (1.26 vs 2.05) and ERA (3.86 vs 4.78).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Dodgers are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.07 against -0.07).
| Metric | Cardinals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.671 | 0.708 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.298 | 0.316 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.8% | 19.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cardinals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.732 (+0.032 vs szn) | 0.688 (-0.068 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.18 (+0.697 vs szn) | 4.07 (-0.839 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.323 (+0.012 vs szn) | 0.305 (-0.028 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.9% (+1.2% vs szn) | 20.1% |
Over the last 30 days the Cardinals have been the better offense, 0.323 wOBA to 0.305. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.012 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cardinals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 68-70 | 82-55 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.07 | +1.07 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.48 | 4.91 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.55 | 3.84 |
| Season OPS | 0.696 | 0.757 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.7% | 20.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.708 | 0.764 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cardinals and Dodgers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cardinals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.2/10, Tired | 5.8/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 4.0/10, Below average | 6.2/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.7/10, Tired | 5.2/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 27.7 | 18.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.53 | 1.96 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.41 | 1.36 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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