MLB matchup analysis
Mets vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 6:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Mets vs Rays
The case for New York Mets
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Mets 2, Rays 6
How the analysis held up
Tampa Bay Rays won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
LyDia's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 29.3 points — the team-strength model favored New York Mets, the run-projection model favored Tampa Bay Rays. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Freddy Peralta (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Sean Manaea: 6.0 IP, 1 ER (1.50 ERA) against 5.2 IP, 5 ER (7.94 ERA). The edge held up.
Tampa Bay Rays scored 6, 1.7 more than the 4.3 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Sean Manaea, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 7.94 ERA, and the opposing starter (1.50 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 1, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Sean Manaea vs Freddy Peralta |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 78°F, 46% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 58 | 56 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.70 | 4.96 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.36 | 1.37 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 14.4% | 13.4% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.7% | 21.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.3% | 8.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.2% | 45.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 54.8% | 54.6% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Sean Manaea a 2-point edge over Freddy Peralta, driven mainly by expected innings (5.7 vs 5.3) and BB/9 (2.9 vs 3.3).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.41 against -0.40).
| Metric | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.664 | 0.682 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.293 | 0.301 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.2 | 4.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.7% | 15.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.726 (+0.033 vs szn) | 0.752 (+0.019 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.07 | 5.04 (+0.514 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.320 (+0.013 vs szn) | 0.329 |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.9% (+1.1% vs szn) | 15.4% (-3.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.329 wOBA to 0.320.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 62-76 | 82-55 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.40 | +0.41 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.08 | 4.52 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.48 | 4.11 |
| Season OPS | 0.694 | 0.732 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.8% | 18.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.694 | 0.680 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mets and Rays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.6/10, Tired | 7.0/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.4/10, Average | 6.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.4/10, Tired | 6.3/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.7 | 22.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.51 | 2.38 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.29 | 1.06 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every LyDia pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. LyDia provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.