MLB matchup analysis
Yankees vs Angels Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at Angel Stadium · 9:38 PM ET
LyDia prediction: New York Yankees moneyline
The case for New York Yankees
The case for Los Angeles Angels
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Yankees is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 73.4% model win probability and 7.9/10 Lab Rating. LyDia projects 73.4% against a 60.3% no-vig market number, a 13.1% model edge at -162. New York Yankees owns the starting pitcher edge by 34 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. New York Yankees's pen efficiency: Below average (4.2/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.5 points from 97.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.4%. Lineup check: New York Yankees is a touch above its season form (+0.024 OPS); Los Angeles Angels is a touch below its season form (-0.026 OPS).
Final result
Yankees 7, Angels 3
How the analysis held up
New York Yankees won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Grayson Rodriguez: 5.1 IP, 3 ER (5.06 ERA) against 6.0 IP, 4 ER (6.00 ERA). The edge held up. Neither starter actually pitched well tonight, though — this is a smaller-of-two-bads comparison, not a starter who dealt.
The New York Yankees bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 3.2 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The Los Angeles Angels bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 3 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (9.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 1, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:38 PM ET |
| Venue | Angel Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Gerrit Cole vs Grayson Rodriguez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 76°F, 0% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 77 | 43 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.19 | 6.03 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.07 | 1.52 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.6 | 8.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 20.9% | 10.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 26.1% | 20.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.2% | 9.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.9 | 3.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.4% | 43.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 62.6% | 57.0% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Gerrit Cole a 34-point edge over Grayson Rodriguez, driven mainly by ERA (3.19 vs 6.03) and BB/9 (1.9 vs 3.9).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Yankees are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 5.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.81 against -0.55).
| Metric | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 2-8 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.743 | 0.656 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.329 | 0.294 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.1 | 4.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.3% | 24.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.712 (-0.009 vs szn) | 0.619 (-0.062 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.29 (-0.247 vs szn) | 3.61 (-0.479 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.314 | 0.278 (-0.025 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.8% (+1.1% vs szn) | 25.0% |
Over the last 30 days the Yankees have been the better offense, 0.314 wOBA to 0.278. Yankees are striking out at 25.8% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 78-60 | 53-85 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.81 | -0.55 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.53 | 4.09 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.73 | 4.64 |
| Season OPS | 0.719 | 0.682 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.7% | 25.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.714 | 0.682 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Yankees and Angels are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.1/10, Tired | 5.2/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 4.2/10, Below average | 2.8/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 7.5/10, Tired | 6.3/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 29.3 | 21.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.22 | 6.65 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.40 | 1.80 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.0 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every LyDia pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. LyDia provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.