MLB matchup analysis
Dodgers vs Marlins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at loanDepot park · 4:10 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for Miami Marlins
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Los Angeles Dodgers remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.0/10: conviction 7.1, pitching plan 36, offense 27.04. LyDia projects 69.2% against a 62.7% no-vig market number, a 6.4% model edge at -182. Los Angeles Dodgers owns the starting pitcher edge by 12 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. Los Angeles Dodgers's pen efficiency: Effective (6.4/10). Lineup check: Los Angeles Dodgers is near its season form (-0.001 OPS); Miami Marlins is a touch above its season form (+0.023 OPS).
Final result
Dodgers 3, Marlins 4
How the analysis held up
Miami Marlins won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
Tyler Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) was LyDia's favored starter by pitcher score, but Tyler Phillips actually pitched better tonight: 3.2 IP, 2 ER (4.91 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 4 ER (9.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 4.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The Miami Marlins bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 5.1 innings (1.69 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers scored 3, 2.9 fewer than the 5.9 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Tyler Glasnow, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 9.00 ERA, and Los Angeles Dodgers's offense scored 2.9 fewer runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 PM ET |
| Venue | loanDepot park |
| Starting pitchers | Tyler Glasnow vs Tyler Phillips |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 79°F, 12% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from NW. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 74 | 64 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.50 | 3.55 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.97 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 11.2 | 7.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 23.2% | 8.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 32.0% | 18.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.7% | 10.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.7% | 52.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 56.3% | 47.4% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Tyler Glasnow a 10-point edge over Tyler Phillips, driven mainly by K-BB% (23.2% vs 8.9%) and K/9 (11.2 vs 7.3).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 5.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.16 against +0.03).
| Metric | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 8-2 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.758 | 0.751 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.339 | 0.331 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.6 | 5.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.3% | 22.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.713 (-0.044 vs szn) | 0.713 (-0.015 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.85 (-0.128 vs szn) | 4.50 (+0.070 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.318 (-0.016 vs szn) | 0.318 |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.2% (+0.6% vs szn) | 22.9% (+1.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Marlins have been the better offense, 0.318 wOBA to 0.318.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 90-57 | 72-76 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.16 | +0.03 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.98 | 4.43 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.82 | 4.40 |
| Season OPS | 0.759 | 0.728 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.6% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.764 | 0.742 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Dodgers and Marlins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Dodgers | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.8/10, Normal | 7.2/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.4/10, Effective | 4.5/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 4.1/10, Normal | 7.5/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.3 | 27.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.86 | 4.67 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.29 | 1.44 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The current model and market total cannot be compared yet. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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