MLB matchup analysis
Reds vs Brewers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at American Family Field · 7:10 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Milwaukee Brewers moneyline
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for Cincinnati Reds
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Milwaukee Brewers remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.7/10: conviction 7.84, pitching plan 18.67, offense 40.88. LyDia projects 70.7% against a 62.6% no-vig market number, a 8.0% model edge at -180. Milwaukee Brewers owns the starting pitcher edge by 11 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. Milwaukee Brewers's pen efficiency: Below average (3.0/10). Lineup check: Milwaukee Brewers is swinging a hot bat (+0.093 OPS); Cincinnati Reds is a touch above its season form (+0.049 OPS).
Game information
| Matchup | Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | American Family Field |
| Starting pitchers | Brady Singer vs Shane Drohan |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 75°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from NW. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Reds | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5 |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 51 | 61 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.22 | 4.35 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.49 | 1.33 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.5 | 9.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.3% | 15.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.5% | 23.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.1% | 8.2% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 48.3% | 45.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 51.7% | 54.5% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Shane Drohan a 10-point edge over Brady Singer, driven mainly by HR/9 (1.07 vs 1.74) and K-BB% (15.6% vs 10.3%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Reds are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 6.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Brewers carry the better run differential per game (+1.30 against -0.97).
| Metric | Reds | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.752 | 0.838 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.330 | 0.365 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.8 | 6.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 27.0% | 22.7% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Reds | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.720 (+0.015 vs szn) | 0.816 (+0.070 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.45 (+0.286 vs szn) | 6.25 (+1.102 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.318 | 0.358 (+0.028 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.6% | 21.8% |
Over the last 30 days the Brewers have been the better offense, 0.358 wOBA to 0.318. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.028 wOBA). Reds are striking out at 25.6% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Reds | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 69-78 | 92-56 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.97 | +1.30 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.16 | 5.15 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.12 | 3.85 |
| Season OPS | 0.703 | 0.745 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 25.5% | 21.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.750 | 0.760 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Reds and Brewers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Reds | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.7/10, High risk | 6.6/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 1.3/10, Struggling | 3.0/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 10.0/10, High risk | 7.6/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 30.0 | 23.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 8 |
| 7-day ERA | 9.60 | 6.85 |
| 7-day WHIP | 2.10 | 1.61 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The current model and market total cannot be compared yet. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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