MLB matchup analysis
Mets vs Yankees Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 12, 2026 at Yankee Stadium · 1:35 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Mets vs Yankees
The case for New York Yankees
The case for New York Mets
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Mets 12, Yankees 2
How the analysis held up
New York Mets won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
Zac Thornton (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Gerrit Cole: 7.0 IP, 2 ER (2.57 ERA) against 4.1 IP, 5 ER (10.38 ERA). The edge held up.
The New York Mets bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 2.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
The New York Yankees bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 7 earned runs allowed over 4.2 relief innings (13.50 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
New York Mets scored 12, 8.5 more than the 3.5 pregame projection.
New York Yankees scored 2, 3.7 fewer than the 5.7 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Gerrit Cole, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 10.38 ERA, and the New York Yankees bullpen allowed 7 earned runs over 4.2 relief innings (13.50 ERA), which was not flagged pregame but showed up anyway.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Mets at New York Yankees |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 12, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 PM ET |
| Venue | Yankee Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Zac Thornton vs Gerrit Cole |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 72°F, 1% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Mets | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 69 | 72 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.44 | 3.67 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.16 | 1.13 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.8 | 9.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.3% | 20.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.8% | 24.6% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 5.5% | 4.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.0% | 37.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 55.0% | 62.9% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Gerrit Cole a 3-point edge over Zac Thornton, driven mainly by K/9 (9.1 vs 6.8) and K-BB% (20.0% vs 13.3%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Mets are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 6.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 5.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.83 against -0.22).
| Metric | Mets | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.771 | 0.764 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.339 | 0.337 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.1 | 5.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.5% | 22.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Mets | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.763 (+0.057 vs szn) | 0.712 (-0.009 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.12 (+0.771 vs szn) | 4.64 (+0.082 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.334 (+0.022 vs szn) | 0.316 |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.5% (-0.9% vs szn) | 24.7% |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.334 wOBA to 0.316. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.022 wOBA). Yankees are striking out at 24.7% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Mets | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 68-79 | 85-62 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.22 | +0.83 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.34 | 4.56 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.56 | 3.73 |
| Season OPS | 0.703 | 0.723 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.4% | 24.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.710 | 0.736 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mets and Yankees are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Mets | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.6/10, Tired | 6.9/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.9/10, Below average | 5.8/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.2/10, Tired | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.3 | 18.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.92 | 2.45 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.36 | 1.47 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The current model and market total cannot be compared yet. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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