MLB matchup analysis
Giants vs Mets Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at Citi Field · 4:10 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Giants vs Mets
The case for New York Mets
The case for San Francisco Giants
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Giants 9, Mets 5
How the analysis held up
San Francisco Giants won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
LyDia's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 18.6 points — the team-strength model favored New York Mets, the run-projection model favored San Francisco Giants. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Anthony Molina (San Francisco Giants), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Zac Thornton: 5.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 6 ER (10.80 ERA). The edge held up.
The San Francisco Giants bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (High risk). In relief it actually allowed 3 earned runs over 4.0 innings (6.75 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 2 of the runs charged to the San Francisco Giants pitching staff overall were unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The New York Mets bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 3 earned runs allowed over 4.0 relief innings (6.75 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
San Francisco Giants scored 9, 4.4 more than the 4.6 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Zac Thornton, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 10.80 ERA, and the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | San Francisco Giants at New York Mets |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Citi Field |
| Starting pitchers | Anthony Molina vs Zac Thornton |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 72°F, 0% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Giants | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 75 | 68 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.79 | 3.53 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.88 | 1.19 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.0 | 6.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 16.2% | 13.5% |
| K% (higher is better) | 20.3% | 19.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 4.1% | 5.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 46.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.0% | 53.3% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Anthony Molina a 7-point edge over Zac Thornton, driven mainly by WHIP (0.88 vs 1.19) and BB/9 (1.4 vs 2.0).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Giants are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 5.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Mets are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.51 against -0.35).
| Metric | Giants | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.758 | 0.717 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.335 | 0.315 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.3 | 4.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.1% | 22.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Giants | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.704 (-0.014 vs szn) | 0.738 (+0.042 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.36 (+0.154 vs szn) | 4.56 (+0.387 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.311 | 0.325 (+0.017 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.2% (+1.9% vs szn) | 22.4% |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.325 wOBA to 0.311. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.017 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Giants | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 58-84 | 64-77 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.51 | -0.35 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.20 | 4.17 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.71 | 4.52 |
| Season OPS | 0.715 | 0.697 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.3% | 22.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.664 | 0.695 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Giants and Mets are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Giants | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.5/10, High risk | 5.6/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 2.9/10, Struggling | 3.8/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 9.6/10, High risk | 6.2/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 33.0 | 21.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.55 | 6.00 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.76 | 1.38 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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