MLB matchup analysis
Yankees vs Padres Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at Petco Park · 7:15 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Yankees vs Padres
The case for New York Yankees
The case for San Diego Padres
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Yankees at San Diego Padres |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Petco Park |
| Starting pitchers | Carlos Rodón vs Robbie Ray |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 83°F, 1% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Yankees | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | L | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 70 | 64 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.10 | 3.39 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.18 | 1.34 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.9 | 7.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.7% | 7.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 26.3% | 19.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 12.5% | 12.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.7% | 40.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 62.3% | 59.9% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Carlos Rodón a 6-point edge over Robbie Ray, driven mainly by K/9 (9.9 vs 7.6) and K-BB% (13.7% vs 7.8%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Yankees are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Padres are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.81 against +0.08).
| Metric | Yankees | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.737 | 0.668 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.326 | 0.296 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.3% | 22.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Yankees | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.713 (-0.006 vs szn) | 0.725 (+0.025 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.48 (-0.047 vs szn) | 4.11 (-0.093 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.315 | 0.320 (+0.010 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 26.5% (+1.8% vs szn) | 20.6% (-1.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.320 wOBA to 0.315. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.010 wOBA). Yankees are striking out at 26.5% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Yankees | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 80-61 | 74-67 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.81 | +0.08 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.52 | 4.23 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.72 | 4.16 |
| Season OPS | 0.719 | 0.700 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.8% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.726 | 0.688 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Yankees and Padres are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Yankees | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.3/10, Normal | 6.6/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.3/10, Average | 5.4/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 5.2/10, Normal | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.3 | 22.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.26 | 3.57 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.11 | 1.28 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.1 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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