MLB matchup analysis
Nationals vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, September 5, 2026 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 9:10 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for Washington Nationals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Los Angeles Dodgers remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.5/10: conviction 3.12, pitching plan 38.67, offense 23.17. LyDia projects 61.2% against a 66.4% no-vig market number, a -5.2% model edge at -225. Los Angeles Dodgers owns the starting pitcher edge by 5 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Los Angeles Dodgers's pen efficiency: Average (4.6/10). Lineup check: Los Angeles Dodgers is in a cold stretch (-0.089 OPS); Washington Nationals is in a cold stretch (-0.052 OPS).
Game information
| Matchup | Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, September 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:10 PM ET |
| Venue | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Cade Cavalli vs Tyler Glasnow |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 82°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Nationals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 74 | 79 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.12 | 2.79 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.20 | 0.81 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.4 | 10.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 20.5% | 25.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 27.7% | 32.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.2% | 7.3% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 56.9% | 47.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 43.1% | 52.3% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Tyler Glasnow a 5-point edge over Cade Cavalli, driven mainly by WHIP (0.81 vs 1.20) and K-BB% (25.0% vs 20.5%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Nationals are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Dodgers are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.06 against +0.08).
| Metric | Nationals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 1-9 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.702 | 0.667 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.312 | 0.305 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.4 | 4.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.3% | 21.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Nationals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.698 (-0.056 vs szn) | 0.690 (-0.066 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.37 (-0.790 vs szn) | 4.15 (-0.754 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.309 (-0.022 vs szn) | 0.307 (-0.025 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.8% (+1.2% vs szn) | 20.7% |
Over the last 30 days the Nationals have been the better offense, 0.309 wOBA to 0.307. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.022 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Nationals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 67-76 | 84-57 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.08 | +1.06 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.16 | 4.91 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.08 | 3.85 |
| Season OPS | 0.754 | 0.756 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 20.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.743 | 0.763 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Nationals and Dodgers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Nationals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.2/10, Tired | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 2.4/10, Struggling | 4.6/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 7.5/10, Tired | 6.9/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 28.7 | 20.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 8.16 | 5.23 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.47 | 1.16 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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