MLB matchup analysis
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at Chase Field · 9:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Marlins vs Diamondbacks
The case for Arizona Diamondbacks
The case for Miami Marlins
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Marlins 4, Diamondbacks 2
How the analysis held up
Miami Marlins won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
Michael Soroka (Arizona Diamondbacks), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Janson Junk: 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA) against 3.0 IP, 1 ER (3.00 ERA). The edge held up.
The Miami Marlins bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 8.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Miami Marlins pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Miami Marlins scored 4 in a game that went 11 innings — not compared against the 4 pregame projection, which assumed nine.
Arizona Diamondbacks scored 2 in a game that went 11 innings — not compared against the 4.7 pregame projection, which assumed nine.
Likely driver: the Miami Marlins bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 8.0 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Chase Field |
| Starting pitchers | Janson Junk vs Michael Soroka |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 96°F, 8% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from SE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Marlins | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 59 | 71 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.54 | 3.53 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.32 | 1.16 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.0 | 8.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 9.3% | 17.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 15.7% | 23.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.4% | 6.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 48.8% | 44.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 51.2% | 55.9% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Michael Soroka a 12-point edge over Janson Junk, driven mainly by K/9 (8.6 vs 6.0) and K-BB% (17.0% vs 9.3%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 5.6 runs per game over the last 15 days; Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.05 against +0.01).
| Metric | Marlins | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.800 | 0.702 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.350 | 0.309 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.6 | 3.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.2% | 22.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Marlins | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.722 (-0.006 vs szn) | 0.693 (-0.019 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.79 (+0.332 vs szn) | 3.96 (-0.477 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.320 | 0.306 (-0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.9% (+1.0% vs szn) | 20.4% (+1.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Marlins have been the better offense, 0.320 wOBA to 0.306.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Marlins | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 74-77 | 80-71 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.05 | +0.01 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.45 | 4.44 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.41 | 4.43 |
| Season OPS | 0.729 | 0.713 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.9% | 19.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.744 | 0.686 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Marlins and Diamondbacks are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Marlins | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.4/10, Tired | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.9/10, Below average | 6.1/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 8.0/10, Tired | 5.9/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 26.3 | 27.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.81 | 2.60 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.41 | 1.19 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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