MLB matchup analysis
Yankees vs Twins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at Target Field · 7:40 PM ET
LyDia prediction: New York Yankees moneyline
The case for New York Yankees
The case for Minnesota Twins
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Yankees is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 73.1% model win probability and 8.2/10 Lab Rating. LyDia projects 73.1% against a 57.1% no-vig market number, a 16.0% model edge at -140. New York Yankees owns the starting pitcher edge by 19 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. New York Yankees's pen efficiency: Average (4.5/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 22.8 points from 95.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.1%. Lineup check: New York Yankees is a touch above its season form (+0.020 OPS); Minnesota Twins is a touch below its season form (-0.027 OPS).
Game information
| Matchup | New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Target Field |
| Starting pitchers | Max Fried vs Bailey Ober |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 67°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Yankees | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 80 | 61 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.68 | 4.33 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.98 | 1.29 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.5 | 6.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 16.8% | 9.7% |
| K% (higher is better) | 24.5% | 16.6% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.8% | 6.9% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 49.5% | 38.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 50.5% | 62.0% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Max Fried a 19-point edge over Bailey Ober, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.35 vs 1.39) and WHIP (0.98 vs 1.29).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.7 runs per game over the last 15 days; Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.87 against -0.45).
| Metric | Yankees | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.743 | 0.695 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.328 | 0.310 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.6% | 21.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Yankees | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.750 (+0.027 vs szn) | 0.703 (-0.019 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.04 (+0.479 vs szn) | 4.22 (-0.327 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.331 (+0.012 vs szn) | 0.312 (-0.007 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.4% | 18.9% (-2.2% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Yankees have been the better offense, 0.331 wOBA to 0.312. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.012 wOBA). Yankees are striking out at 24.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Yankees | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 87-63 | 70-80 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.87 | -0.45 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.57 | 4.57 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.70 | 5.02 |
| Season OPS | 0.723 | 0.722 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.5% | 21.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.714 | 0.678 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Yankees and Twins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Yankees | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.8/10, Normal | 7.8/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.5/10, Average | 3.1/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 6.1/10, Normal | 8.8/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.3 | 24.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.81 | 6.93 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.40 | 1.50 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.0 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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