MLB matchup analysis
White Sox vs Guardians Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at Progressive Field · 6:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on White Sox vs Guardians
The case for Cleveland Guardians
The case for Chicago White Sox
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|
| Date | Tuesday, September 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Progressive Field |
| Starting pitchers | Chris Murphy vs Foster Griffin |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 78°F, 0% precipitation chance, 12 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | White Sox | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 1 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 53 | 69 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.68 | 3.67 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.41 | 1.19 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.4 | 8.2 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 12.4% | 15.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.4% | 21.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 11.0% | 6.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.4 | 2.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 29.5% | 52.3% |
| Fly-ball rate | 70.5% | 47.7% |
Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives the Chicago White Sox pitching plan the edge over Foster Griffin (7 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Chris Murphy is projected for only 1 innings, with the Chicago White Sox bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the Chicago White Sox blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Foster Griffin's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Chicago White Sox, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Chris Murphy (about 1 innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.48 rather than Chris Murphy's own 4.68. Whole-game, that is 3.37 for the Cleveland Guardians against 3.48 on the other side, so the blended read leans Cleveland Guardians.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →White Sox are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days; Guardians are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.25 against -0.07).
| Metric | White Sox | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.669 | 0.712 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.304 | 0.315 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.7 | 4.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 27.2% | 17.4% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | White Sox | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.696 (-0.026 vs szn) | 0.708 (+0.019 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.17 (-0.516 vs szn) | 4.61 (+0.508 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.313 (-0.007 vs szn) | 0.313 (+0.007 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.2% (+1.0% vs szn) | 17.7% (-3.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the White Sox have been the better offense, 0.313 wOBA to 0.313. White Sox are striking out at 25.2% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | White Sox | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 77-73 | 76-75 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.25 | -0.07 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.68 | 4.09 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.43 | 4.17 |
| Season OPS | 0.722 | 0.689 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.2% | 21.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.742 | 0.658 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. White Sox and Guardians are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | White Sox | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 10.0/10, High risk | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.5/10, Average | 6.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 10.0/10, High risk | 5.8/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 46.3 | 28.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 2 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.47 | 2.54 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.51 | 0.95 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 4.5 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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