MLB matchup analysis
Nationals vs Mets Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at Citi Field · 1:40 PM ET
LyDia prediction: New York Mets moneyline
The case for New York Mets
The case for Washington Nationals
Read the full model output
New York Mets is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 73.6% model win probability and 8.2/10 Lab Rating. LyDia projects 73.6% against a 60.1% no-vig market number, a 13.5% model edge at -152. New York Mets owns the starting pitcher edge by 17 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. New York Mets's pen efficiency: Effective (5.5/10). Lineup check: New York Mets is swinging a hot bat (+0.081 OPS); Washington Nationals is in a cold stretch (-0.071 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Washington Nationals at New York Mets |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, August 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Citi Field |
| Starting pitchers | Jake Irvin vs Christian Scott |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 80°F, 2% precipitation chance, 13 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Nationals | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 50 | 67 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.79 | 3.45 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.32 | 1.30 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.1 | 11.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.3% | 19.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.1% | 28.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.8% | 9.7% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.9% | 39.1% |
| Fly-ball rate | 59.1% | 60.9% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Christian Scott a 17-point edge over Jake Irvin, driven mainly by ERA (3.45 vs 5.79) and HR/9 (0.80 vs 1.52).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Nationals are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form; Mets are 7-3 in their last 10, averaging 4.9 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. On the season Nationals carry the better run differential per game (+0.15 against -0.35).
| Metric | Nationals | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 1-9 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.695 | 0.777 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.310 | 0.341 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.6 | 4.9 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.3% | 23.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Nationals | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.792 (+0.026 vs szn) | 0.734 (+0.038 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.39 (+0.057 vs szn) | 4.50 (+0.315 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.347 (+0.011 vs szn) | 0.324 (+0.016 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.2% (+0.7% vs szn) | 25.4% (+2.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Nationals have been the better offense, 0.347 wOBA to 0.324. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.011 wOBA). Mets are striking out at 25.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Nationals | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 60-65 | 55-69 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.15 | -0.35 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.34 | 4.19 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.18 | 4.53 |
| Season OPS | 0.766 | 0.696 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 22.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.757 | 0.694 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Nationals and Mets are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Nationals | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.4/10, Tired | 5.2/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 4.0/10, Below average | 5.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.9/10, Tired | 5.0/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 28.7 | 18.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 2 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.34 | 3.44 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.50 | 1.25 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.7 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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