MLB matchup analysis
White Sox vs Tigers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, August 16, 2026 at Comerica Park · 1:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on White Sox vs Tigers
The case for Chicago White Sox
The case for Detroit Tigers
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, August 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Comerica Park |
| Starting pitchers | Sean Burke vs Drew Anderson |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 81°F, 25% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | White Sox | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 3 |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 80 | 58 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.99 | 3.91 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.08 | 1.30 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.1 | 10.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 20.5% | 18.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 27.6% | 26.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.1% | 8.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.6 | 3.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.6% | 49.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 62.4% | 50.4% |
Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives Sean Burke the edge over the Detroit Tigers pitching plan (3 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Drew Anderson is projected for only 3 innings, with the Detroit Tigers bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Sean Burke's own line against the Detroit Tigers blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Detroit Tigers, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Drew Anderson (about 3 innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.45 rather than Drew Anderson's own 3.91. Whole-game, that is 3.45 for the Detroit Tigers against 3.72 on the other side, so the blended read leans Detroit Tigers.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. White Sox are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 5.0 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Tigers are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 5.7 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.37 against +0.69).
| Metric | White Sox | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.758 | 0.762 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.333 | 0.339 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.0 | 5.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 26.7% | 21.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | White Sox | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.719 (-0.010 vs szn) | 0.777 (+0.050 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.93 (+0.114 vs szn) | 5.67 (+1.114 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.317 | 0.340 (+0.019 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.5% (+0.6% vs szn) | 20.6% (-2.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Tigers have been the better offense, 0.340 wOBA to 0.317. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.019 wOBA). White Sox are striking out at 24.5% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | White Sox | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 64-58 | 60-63 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.37 | +0.69 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.81 | 4.55 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.44 | 3.86 |
| Season OPS | 0.729 | 0.727 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 23.9% | 22.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.729 | 0.736 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. White Sox and Tigers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | White Sox | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 10.0/10, High risk | 6.3/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.8/10, Average | 5.9/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 10.0/10, High risk | 5.9/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 35.7 | 25.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 8 | 2 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.54 | 2.88 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.29 | 1.24 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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