Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction, Odds and Model Pick

Game information

Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching plan the edge over Patrick Sandoval (10 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Lake Bachar is projected for only 2⅓ innings, with the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the Pittsburgh Pirates blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Patrick Sandoval's own line, not two starters directly.

Blended read: For the Pittsburgh Pirates, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Lake Bachar (about 2⅓ innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 4.20 rather than Lake Bachar's own 3.97. Whole-game, that is 3.61 for the Boston Red Sox against 4.20 on the other side, so the blended read leans Boston Red Sox.

How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.

Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →

Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.

Red Sox are 4-6 in their last 10, averaging 5.9 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Pirates are 3-7 in their last 10, averaging 3.8 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. On the season Red Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.70 against +0.20).

Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.

Over the last 30 days the Red Sox have been the better offense, 0.344 wOBA to 0.294. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.025 wOBA). Pirates are striking out at 25.8% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.

Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.

Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Red Sox and Pirates are highlighted.

Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.

Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.

The model projects 0.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.