MLB matchup analysis
Yankees vs Angels Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, August 31, 2026 at Angel Stadium · 9:38 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Yankees vs Angels
The case for Los Angeles Angels
The case for New York Yankees
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Yankees 1, Angels 10
How the analysis held up
Los Angeles Angels won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Walbert Ureña (Los Angeles Angels), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Elmer Rodríguez: 7.0 IP, 1 ER (1.29 ERA) against 3.2 IP, 4 ER (9.82 ERA). The edge held up.
The New York Yankees bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 5 earned runs over 4.1 innings (10.38 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the New York Yankees pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Los Angeles Angels bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 2.0 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, August 31, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:38 PM ET |
| Venue | Angel Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Elmer Rodríguez vs Walbert Ureña |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 77°F, 0% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 46 | 69 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.70 | 2.94 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.52 | 1.29 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.3 | 8.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 2.9% | 9.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 15.2% | 22.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 12.4% | 12.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 5.1 | 5.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Ground-ball rate | 58.0% | 55.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 42.0% | 44.8% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Walbert Ureña a 23-point edge over Elmer Rodríguez, driven mainly by K/9 (8.7 vs 6.3) and ERA (2.94 vs 4.70).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Yankees are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.78 against -0.53).
| Metric | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 2-8 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 2-8 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.754 | 0.604 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.332 | 0.271 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.4 | 3.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.5% | 24.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.699 (-0.020 vs szn) | 0.612 (-0.070 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.11 (-0.407 vs szn) | 3.54 (-0.558 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.309 (-0.008 vs szn) | 0.275 (-0.028 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.7% (+1.1% vs szn) | 25.5% |
Over the last 30 days the Yankees have been the better offense, 0.309 wOBA to 0.275. Yankees are striking out at 25.7% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 78-59 | 52-85 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.78 | -0.53 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.51 | 4.09 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.73 | 4.62 |
| Season OPS | 0.720 | 0.680 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.6% | 25.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.716 | 0.680 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Yankees and Angels are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.5/10, Tired | 6.1/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.0/10, Average | 3.0/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 7.5/10, Tired | 7.1/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 25.0 | 23.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.32 | 6.56 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.28 | 1.71 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.1 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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