MLB matchup analysis
Brewers vs Cubs Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, August 31, 2026 at Wrigley Field · 7:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Brewers vs Cubs
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for Chicago Cubs
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Brewers 3, Cubs 17
How the analysis held up
Chicago Cubs won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
LyDia's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 26.6 points — the team-strength model favored Milwaukee Brewers, the run-projection model favored Chicago Cubs. The run-projection model had the winner here.
Clay Holmes (Chicago Cubs), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Kyle Harrison: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 3.2 IP, 9 ER (22.09 ERA). The edge held up.
The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 8 earned runs allowed over 4.1 relief innings (16.62 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The Chicago Cubs bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 3 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (9.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
Chicago Cubs scored 17, 11.5 more than the 5.5 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Kyle Harrison, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 22.09 ERA, and the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen allowed 8 earned runs over 4.1 relief innings (16.62 ERA), which was not flagged pregame but showed up anyway.
Game information
| Matchup | Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, August 31, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Wrigley Field |
| Starting pitchers | Kyle Harrison vs Clay Holmes |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 79°F, 19% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Brewers | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 73 | 77 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.36 | 2.13 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.20 | 1.07 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 10.9 | 6.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 22.6% | 10.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 29.1% | 19.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.5% | 8.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.7% | 64.3% |
| Fly-ball rate | 57.3% | 35.7% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Clay Holmes a 4-point edge over Kyle Harrison, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.45 vs 1.60) and expected innings (5.7 vs 4.9).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 6.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 6.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+1.18 against +1.02).
| Metric | Brewers | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.815 | 0.872 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.358 | 0.375 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.2 | 6.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.4% | 18.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Brewers | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.724 (-0.011 vs szn) | 0.863 (+0.089 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.62 (-0.315 vs szn) | 6.36 (+1.019 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.322 | 0.373 (+0.032 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.0% (+2.5% vs szn) | 20.2% (-1.2% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Cubs have been the better offense, 0.373 wOBA to 0.322. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.032 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Brewers | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 85-52 | 77-60 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.18 | +1.02 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.97 | 5.38 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.79 | 4.36 |
| Season OPS | 0.735 | 0.767 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.5% | 21.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.753 | 0.807 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Brewers and Cubs are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Brewers | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.7/10, Tired | 5.7/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.8/10, Effective | 3.4/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 5.8/10, Normal | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 27.0 | 17.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.67 | 6.62 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.11 | 1.42 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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