MLB matchup analysis
Tigers vs Twins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, August 31, 2026 at Target Field · 7:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Tigers vs Twins
The case for Minnesota Twins
The case for Detroit Tigers
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Tigers 1, Twins 11
How the analysis held up
Minnesota Twins won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Taj Bradley (Minnesota Twins), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Jackson Jobe: 7.0 IP, 1 ER (1.29 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 4 ER (7.20 ERA). The edge held up.
The Detroit Tigers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 6 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (18.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Detroit Tigers pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Minnesota Twins bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 2.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Detroit Tigers scored 1, 1.8 fewer than the 2.8 pregame projection.
Minnesota Twins scored 11, 7 more than the 4 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, August 31, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Target Field |
| Starting pitchers | Jackson Jobe vs Taj Bradley |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 86°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Tigers | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 50 | 66 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.63 | 3.87 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.46 | 1.27 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.3 | 10.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.7% | 17.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 18.3% | 27.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.6% | 10.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 60.4% | 39.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 39.6% | 60.1% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Taj Bradley a 16-point edge over Jackson Jobe, driven mainly by K/9 (10.3 vs 7.3) and K-BB% (17.1% vs 8.7%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 2.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Tigers carry the better run differential per game (+0.40 against -0.33).
| Metric | Tigers | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 2-8 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.567 | 0.711 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.256 | 0.314 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.0% | 16.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Tigers | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.665 (-0.046 vs szn) | 0.736 (+0.009 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.11 (-0.222 vs szn) | 4.22 (-0.368 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.298 (-0.016 vs szn) | 0.325 |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.0% (-0.6% vs szn) | 18.9% (-2.1% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Twins have been the better offense, 0.325 wOBA to 0.298.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Tigers | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 63-73 | 65-72 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.40 | -0.33 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.36 | 4.62 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.96 | 4.95 |
| Season OPS | 0.713 | 0.723 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.6% | 21.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.723 | 0.738 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Tigers and Twins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Tigers | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.8/10, Normal | 4.1/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.5/10, Effective | 3.3/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 5.1/10, Normal | 5.0/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.7 | 15.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 2 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.18 | 6.32 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.11 | 1.60 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.1 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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