MLB matchup analysis
Mets vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Monday, August 31, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 6:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Mets vs Rays
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for New York Mets
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Mets 3, Rays 2
How the analysis held up
New York Mets won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
Robert Stock (New York Mets), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Ian Seymour: 5.1 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 6.1 IP, 3 ER (4.26 ERA). The edge held up.
The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 2.2 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Tampa Bay Rays scored 2, 2.1 fewer than the 4.1 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the opposing starter (0.00 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way, and Tampa Bay Rays's offense scored 2.1 fewer runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Monday, August 31, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Robert Stock vs Ian Seymour |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 78°F, 53% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from E. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅓ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 37 | 69 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.88 | 4.21 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.73 | 1.14 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.7 | 11.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 9.6% | 22.6% |
| K% (higher is better) | 20.0% | 29.4% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.4% | 6.8% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 32.7% | 39.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 67.3% | 60.8% |
Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives the New York Mets pitching plan the edge over Ian Seymour (6 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Robert Stock is projected for only 4⅓ innings, with the New York Mets bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the New York Mets blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Ian Seymour's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the New York Mets, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Robert Stock (about 4⅓ innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.58 rather than Robert Stock's own 5.88. Whole-game, that is 3.58 for the New York Mets against 4.14 on the other side, so the blended read leans New York Mets.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.39 against -0.38).
| Metric | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.679 | 0.690 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.299 | 0.303 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.3 | 4.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.5% | 17.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.728 (+0.035 vs szn) | 0.734 |
| Runs per game | 4.07 | 4.86 (+0.343 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.320 (+0.013 vs szn) | 0.322 |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.4% (+0.6% vs szn) | 15.9% (-2.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.322 wOBA to 0.320.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 61-76 | 82-54 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.38 | +0.39 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.09 | 4.51 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.47 | 4.12 |
| Season OPS | 0.695 | 0.733 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.8% | 18.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.695 | 0.757 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mets and Rays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.0/10, Normal | 7.1/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.7/10, Effective | 6.6/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.7/10, Normal | 6.3/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 22.0 | 23.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.27 | 2.35 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.23 | 1.00 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.0 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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