Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Wednesday, August 5, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
7
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
0
WATCHLIST
2
PASSES
12
Updated Aug 5, 11:46 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros
- Leo side
- Houston Astros Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.1/10
- Model probability
- 70.5%
- Market probability
- -
- Model vs market
- -
- Current price
- -
- Pitcher edge
- Houston Astros by 14 points
- Bullpen read
- Houston Astros has the fresher bullpen, 6.5/10 versus 9.3/10. Toronto Blue Jays has used 23.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionHouston Astros is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 70.5% win probability, the market is at -, and the setup carries a 8.1/10 Lab Rating. Houston Astros has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 14 rating points. Houston Astros has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.2/10 versus 9.4/10. Toronto Blue Jays has 23.0 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. Toronto Blue Jays's pen has been average lately (4.9/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability up 2.7 points from 67.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.5%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds
Official markets
Moneyline: Cincinnati Reds -174
Pitcher Ks: Jacob Lopez Over 5.5 +118
Pitcher Ks: Rhett Lowder Under 4.5 -153
- Leo side
- Cincinnati Reds Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.1/10
- Model probability
- 65.8%
- Market probability
- 61.7%
- Model vs market
- +4.0%
- Current price
- -174
- Pitcher edge
- Cincinnati Reds by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Cincinnati Reds is 6.7/10 and Athletics is 5.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionCincinnati Reds is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 65.8% chance to win, compared with the market's 61.7% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 8.1/10 Lab Rating. Cincinnati Reds has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 6 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Cincinnati Reds is 6.5/10 and Athletics is 7.0/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 15.5 points from 81.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 65.8%. At -174, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.3/10
- Model probability
- 69.9%
- Market probability
- -
- Model vs market
- -
- Current price
- -
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Chicago Cubs 4.9/10, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.9/10).
Why Leo made this decisionChicago Cubs is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 69.9% win probability, the market is at -, and the setup carries a 7.3/10 Lab Rating. Chicago Cubs has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 13 rating points. Chicago Cubs has the lower-risk bullpen, 3.8/10 versus 6.5/10. Los Angeles Dodgers has 28.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 4 back-to-back arms. Los Angeles Dodgers's pen has been below average lately (3.8/10 efficiency).
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.2/10
- Model probability
- 58.7%
- Market probability
- 56.1%
- Model vs market
- +2.6%
- Current price
- -135
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 2 points
- Bullpen read
- Milwaukee Brewers has the fresher bullpen, 5.9/10 versus 7.9/10. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 35.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
Pass reasonModel and market are too close for a clear official pick.
New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Christian Scott Under 5.5 -142
- Leo side
- New York Mets Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.6/10
- Model probability
- 55.9%
- Market probability
- 49.9%
- Model vs market
- +6.0%
- Current price
- -106
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Mets is 5.3/10 and Cleveland Guardians is 6.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Sean Burke Over 5.5 -142
- Leo side
- Boston Red Sox Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.5/10
- Model probability
- 57.1%
- Market probability
- 62.2%
- Model vs market
- -5.1%
- Current price
- -178
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Boston Red Sox is 6.4/10 and Chicago White Sox is 6.5/10.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 50.1%
- Market probability
- 51.8%
- Model vs market
- -1.7%
- Current price
- -112
- Pitcher edge
- Kansas City Royals by 15 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Kansas City Royals 5.5/10, Minnesota Twins 5.9/10).
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- Leo side
- San Diego Padres Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 54.8%
- Market probability
- 49.0%
- Model vs market
- +5.8%
- Current price
- -102
- Pitcher edge
- San Diego Padres by 41 points
- Bullpen read
- San Diego Padres carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.8/10 versus 5.6/10, which adds late-game risk. San Diego Padres has used 37.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.4/10
- Model probability
- 51.3%
- Market probability
- 46.3%
- Model vs market
- +5.0%
- Current price
- +110
- Pitcher edge
- Seattle Mariners by 7 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Detroit Tigers 4.8/10, Seattle Mariners 5.0/10).
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Detroit Tigers is using a bullpen game. Drew Anderson is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.9/10 risk with 4.8/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.8/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 2.3/10 for Seattle Mariners.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Detroit Tigers is using a bullpen game. Drew Anderson is expected to cover about 3.0 innings, leaving roughly 6.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 4.9/10 risk with 4.8/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.8/10 for Detroit Tigers versus 2.3/10 for Seattle Mariners.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Colorado Rockies
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.4/10
- Model probability
- 64.6%
- Market probability
- 59.5%
- Model vs market
- +5.1%
- Current price
- -153
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Tampa Bay Rays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.0/10 versus 6.0/10, which adds late-game risk. Tampa Bay Rays has used 35.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
San Francisco Giants @ Texas Rangers
- Leo side
- Texas Rangers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.2/10
- Model probability
- 50.5%
- Market probability
- 59.4%
- Model vs market
- -8.9%
- Current price
- -147
- Pitcher edge
- Texas Rangers by 18 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Texas Rangers is 7.4/10 and San Francisco Giants is 7.1/10.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.9/10
- Model probability
- 55.5%
- Market probability
- 58.8%
- Model vs market
- -3.4%
- Current price
- -152
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Atlanta Braves 5.6/10, Miami Marlins 4.6/10).
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jake Irvin Over 3.5 -122
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.8/10
- Model probability
- 54.6%
- Market probability
- 74.0%
- Model vs market
- -19.4%
- Current price
- -335
- Pitcher edge
- Washington Nationals by 12 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Philadelphia Phillies is 5.3/10 and Washington Nationals is 6.2/10.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Reid Detmers Over 6.5 -154
- Leo side
- Baltimore Orioles Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.5/10
- Model probability
- 56.1%
- Market probability
- 60.2%
- Model vs market
- -4.1%
- Current price
- -167
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Angels by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- No meaningful bullpen fatigue edge — both pens come in comparable (Baltimore Orioles 4.9/10, Los Angeles Angels 5.4/10).
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Yankees
- Leo side
- New York Yankees Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.4/10
- Model probability
- 58.0%
- Market probability
- 58.5%
- Model vs market
- -0.5%
- Current price
- -147
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 6 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. New York Yankees is 7.1/10 and St. Louis Cardinals is 6.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Pass reasonMarket is higher than Leo's model probability.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.