MLB matchup analysis
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at Citizens Bank Park · 6:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Nationals vs Phillies
The case for Philadelphia Phillies
The case for Washington Nationals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
Market is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Game information
| Matchup | Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, August 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Citizens Bank Park |
| Starting pitchers | Jake Irvin vs Andrew Painter |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 82°F, 22% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Nationals | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 51 | 39 |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.7% | 37.0% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Jake Irvin a 12-point edge over Andrew Painter, driven mainly by WHIP (1.32 vs 1.61) and K/9 (9.4 vs 7.5).
How to read this: the scorecards show ERA, WHIP, K/9, and K-BB%. The table adds complementary traits without repeating them. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball rate is neither good nor bad on its own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Nationals are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.07 against +0.04).
| Metric | Nationals | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.759 | 0.700 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 4.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.5% | 21.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Nationals | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.814 (+0.049 vs szn) | 0.701 |
| Runs per game | 5.21 (-0.096 vs szn) | 4.13 (-0.270 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.354 (+0.019 vs szn) | 0.309 |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.7% (-0.7% vs szn) | 23.5% |
Over the last 30 days the Nationals have been the better offense, 0.354 wOBA to 0.309. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.019 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Nationals | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 55-60 | 61-53 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.07 | +0.04 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.30 | 4.39 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.23 | 4.36 |
| Season OPS | 0.765 | 0.706 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.4% | 23.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.760 | 0.712 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Nationals and Phillies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Nationals | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.2/10, Tired | 5.3/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 3.9/10, Below average | 5.7/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.8/10, Tired | 5.0/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.7 | 15.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.32 | 3.45 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.56 | 1.15 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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