MLB matchup analysis
Tigers vs Mariners Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at T-Mobile Park · 9:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Tigers vs Mariners
The case for Detroit Tigers
The case for Seattle Mariners
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, August 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 PM ET |
| Venue | T-Mobile Park |
| Starting pitchers | Drew Anderson vs Bryan Woo |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 79°F, 0% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from N. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Tigers | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 3 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 57 | 67 |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 51.4% | 41.5% |
Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives Bryan Woo the edge over the Detroit Tigers pitching plan (7 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Drew Anderson is projected for only 3 innings, with the Detroit Tigers bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Bryan Woo's own line against the Detroit Tigers blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Detroit Tigers, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Drew Anderson (about 3 innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 4.47 rather than Drew Anderson's own 4.24. Whole-game, that is 3.88 for the Seattle Mariners against 4.47 on the other side, so the blended read leans Seattle Mariners.
How to read this: the scorecards show ERA, WHIP, K/9, and K-BB%. The table adds complementary traits without repeating them. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball rate is neither good nor bad on its own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Tigers are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 6.7 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Mariners are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Tigers carry the better run differential per game (+0.63 against -0.04).
| Metric | Tigers | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 8-2 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.861 | 0.670 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 6.7 | 3.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.5% | 22.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Tigers | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.803 (+0.072 vs szn) | 0.659 (-0.028 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.83 (+1.286 vs szn) | 3.57 (-0.417 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.349 (+0.027 vs szn) | 0.294 (-0.012 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.1% (-0.7% vs szn) | 21.8% (-1.2% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Tigers have been the better offense, 0.349 wOBA to 0.294. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.027 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Tigers | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 55-58 | 55-59 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.63 | -0.04 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.54 | 3.98 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.91 | 4.03 |
| Season OPS | 0.731 | 0.687 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.8% | 23.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.743 | 0.702 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Tigers and Mariners are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Tigers | Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.8/10, Normal | 5.0/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 4.8/10, Average | 2.3/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 4.9/10, Normal | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 21.3 | 16.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.22 | 7.56 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.41 | 1.74 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.7 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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