MLB matchup analysis
White Sox vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at Fenway Park · 7:10 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on White Sox vs Red Sox
The case for Boston Red Sox
The case for Chicago White Sox
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
Market is higher than LyDia's model probability.
Game information
| Matchup | Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, August 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Fenway Park |
| Starting pitchers | Sean Burke vs Sonny Gray |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 84°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | White Sox | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 76 | 75 |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.9% | 51.5% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Sean Burke a 1-point edge over Sonny Gray, driven mainly by K/9 (10.1 vs 7.8) and K-BB% (20.4% vs 14.8%).
How to read this: the scorecards show ERA, WHIP, K/9, and K-BB%. The table adds complementary traits without repeating them. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball rate is neither good nor bad on its own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →White Sox are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form; Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10, averaging 5.3 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.38 against +0.64).
| Metric | White Sox | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.643 | 0.784 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 5.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.0% | 21.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | White Sox | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.660 (-0.062 vs szn) | 0.789 (+0.072 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.57 (-0.194 vs szn) | 5.46 (+1.101 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.292 (-0.027 vs szn) | 0.346 (+0.029 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.6% (+0.8% vs szn) | 21.2% (-0.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Red Sox have been the better offense, 0.346 wOBA to 0.292. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.029 wOBA). White Sox are striking out at 24.6% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | White Sox | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 59-53 | 61-51 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.38 | +0.64 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.76 | 4.36 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.38 | 3.71 |
| Season OPS | 0.722 | 0.717 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 23.8% | 21.9% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.727 | 0.694 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. White Sox and Red Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | White Sox | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.5/10, Tired | 6.4/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 6.9/10, Effective | 7.7/10, Dominant |
| Combined risk | 5.6/10, Normal | 5.1/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 28.7 | 21.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.88 | 0.83 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.98 | 0.83 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.9 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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