MLB matchup analysis
Blue Jays vs Astros Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at Daikin Park · 2:10 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Houston Astros moneyline
The case for Houston Astros
The case for Toronto Blue Jays
Why it is not official
Read the full model output
Houston Astros remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 8.1/10: conviction 21.65, pitching plan 15.8, bullpen 18.71, offense 25. Market pricing was unavailable. Houston Astros owns the starting pitcher edge by 14 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. Houston Astros's pen efficiency: Dominant (7.7/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability up 2.7 points from 67.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.5%. Lineup check: Houston Astros is swinging a hot bat (+0.093 OPS); Toronto Blue Jays is a touch below its season form (-0.036 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, August 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Daikin Park |
| Starting pitchers | Jameson Taillon vs Hunter Brown |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 91°F, 0% precipitation chance, 6 mph wind from S. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Blue Jays | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5 |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 49 | 64 |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.2% | 58.6% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Hunter Brown a 15-point edge over Jameson Taillon, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.99 vs 2.88) and ERA (3.29 vs 5.77).
How to read this: the scorecards show ERA, WHIP, K/9, and K-BB%. The table adds complementary traits without repeating them. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball rate is neither good nor bad on its own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Blue Jays are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 3.3 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form; Astros are 8-2 in their last 10, averaging 5.6 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.54 against -0.21).
| Metric | Blue Jays | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.644 | 0.831 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.3 | 5.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.1% | 21.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Blue Jays | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.644 (-0.035 vs szn) | 0.792 (+0.054 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.52 (-0.341 vs szn) | 5.13 (+0.504 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.286 (-0.014 vs szn) | 0.346 (+0.022 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 17.5% (-2.0% vs szn) | 20.7% (-0.8% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Astros have been the better offense, 0.346 wOBA to 0.286. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.022 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Blue Jays | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 53-61 | 59-56 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.54 | -0.21 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 3.89 | 4.66 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.43 | 4.87 |
| Season OPS | 0.680 | 0.738 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 19.5% | 21.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.697 | 0.750 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Blue Jays and Astros are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Blue Jays | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 9.3/10, High risk | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.9/10, Average | 7.7/10, Dominant |
| Combined risk | 9.4/10, High risk | 5.2/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 23.0 | 20.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.52 | 1.33 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.61 | 0.64 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 3.1 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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