MLB matchup analysis
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at American Family Field · 7:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Pirates vs Brewers
The case for Milwaukee Brewers
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, August 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:40 PM ET |
| Venue | American Family Field |
| Starting pitchers | Paul Skenes vs Kyle Harrison |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 73°F, 42% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from E. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Pirates | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5 |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 72 | 74 |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.2% | 41.1% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Kyle Harrison a 2-point edge over Paul Skenes, driven mainly by ERA (3.01 vs 3.90) and BB/9 (2.2 vs 2.3).
How to read this: the scorecards show ERA, WHIP, K/9, and K-BB%. The table adds complementary traits without repeating them. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball rate is neither good nor bad on its own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Pirates are 4-6 in their last 10, averaging 3.3 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form; Brewers are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Brewers carry the better run differential per game (+1.20 against +0.25).
| Metric | Pirates | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 4-6 on the road | 7-3 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.600 | 0.724 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.3 | 4.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.7% | 20.1% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Pirates | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.695 (-0.053 vs szn) | 0.733 |
| Runs per game | 4.54 (-0.537 vs szn) | 4.52 (-0.453 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.310 (-0.022 vs szn) | 0.325 |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.8% (+0.7% vs szn) | 21.2% |
Over the last 30 days the Brewers have been the better offense, 0.325 wOBA to 0.310. Pirates are striking out at 24.8% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Pirates | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 57-58 | 70-43 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.25 | +1.20 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.08 | 4.97 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.83 | 3.77 |
| Season OPS | 0.748 | 0.735 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.1% | 21.1% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.693 | 0.754 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Pirates and Brewers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Pirates | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.9/10, Tired | 5.9/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 4.7/10, Average | 4.2/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 8.1/10, Tired | 6.3/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 35.0 | 22.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.11 | 5.32 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.54 | 1.36 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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