Leo daily card
MLB Picks | Sunday, September 20, 2026
One authoritative page for every official pick, research setup, and pass. Each decision includes the model probability, matchup evidence, risk, and author.
GAMES
15
OFFICIAL PICKS
7
across all markets
VALUE WATCH
2
WATCHLIST
2
PASSES
10
Updated Sep 20, 2:49 PM EDT. Official picks are published before grading.
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Members get official picks first, value watch setups second, and clear pass reasons for the rest of the card.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles
- Leo side
- Milwaukee Brewers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 9.1/10
- Model probability
- 72.6%
- Market probability
- 64.9%
- Model vs market
- +7.7%
- Current price
- -200
- Pitcher edge
- Milwaukee Brewers by 22 points
- Bullpen read
- Milwaukee Brewers carries the heavier bullpen workload, 9.2/10 versus 6.2/10, which adds late-game risk. Milwaukee Brewers has used 29.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 8 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionMilwaukee Brewers grades as a strong value setup with 72.6% model win probability against a 64.9% market number and a 9.1/10 Lab Rating. Milwaukee Brewers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 22 rating points. Milwaukee Brewers carries the higher-risk bullpen, 9.2/10 versus 5.6/10. Recent context: 29.7 relief innings over the last 7 days, 8 back-to-back arms. Milwaukee Brewers's pen has been average lately (5.1/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.1 points from 95.8% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.6%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jack Perkins Under 4.5 -155
- Leo side
- Cleveland Guardians Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.1/10
- Model probability
- 72.9%
- Market probability
- 69.5%
- Model vs market
- +3.4%
- Current price
- -245
- Pitcher edge
- Cleveland Guardians by 26 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Cleveland Guardians is 8.4/10 and Athletics is 7.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionCleveland Guardians grades as a strong value setup with 72.9% model win probability against a 69.5% market number and a 8.1/10 Lab Rating. Cleveland Guardians has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 26 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Cleveland Guardians is 8.0/10 and Athletics is 7.2/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.0 points from 95.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 72.9%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Leo side
- Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 8.1/10
- Model probability
- 67.6%
- Market probability
- 70.5%
- Model vs market
- -3.0%
- Current price
- -265
- Pitcher edge
- Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Los Angeles Dodgers is 7.8/10 and San Francisco Giants is 6.4/10.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Los Angeles Dodgers is using a bullpen game. Jack Dreyer is expected to cover about 1.0 innings, leaving roughly 8.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.1/10 risk with 4.4/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.4/10 for Los Angeles Dodgers versus 4.5/10 for San Francisco Giants.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Los Angeles Dodgers is using a bullpen game. Jack Dreyer is expected to cover about 1.0 innings, leaving roughly 8.0 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 8.1/10 risk with 4.4/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.4/10 for Los Angeles Dodgers versus 4.5/10 for San Francisco Giants.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Official markets
Moneyline: Detroit Tigers +103
Pitcher Ks: Troy Melton Over 4.5 -125
- Leo side
- Detroit Tigers Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.6/10
- Model probability
- 69.0%
- Market probability
- 47.9%
- Model vs market
- +21.1%
- Current price
- +103
- Pitcher edge
- Detroit Tigers by 13 points
- Bullpen read
- Detroit Tigers has the fresher bullpen, 6.7/10 versus 8.3/10. Chicago White Sox has used 36.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 4 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionDetroit Tigers is an official moneyline pick because Leo gives it a 69.0% chance to win, compared with the market's 47.9% no-vig probability. The full setup earned a 7.6/10 Lab Rating. Detroit Tigers has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 13 rating points. Detroit Tigers has the lower-risk bullpen, 5.8/10 versus 8.4/10. Chicago White Sox has 36.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 4 back-to-back arms. Chicago White Sox's pen has been average lately (4.9/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 18.2 points from 87.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 69.0%. At +103, the price still offers enough value for the play to qualify as official.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers
- Leo side
- Toronto Blue Jays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 7.0/10
- Model probability
- 70.0%
- Market probability
- 38.4%
- Model vs market
- +31.6%
- Current price
- +160
- Pitcher edge
- Toronto Blue Jays by 15 points
- Bullpen read
- Toronto Blue Jays has the fresher bullpen, 7.6/10 versus 10.0/10. Texas Rangers has used 34.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Toronto Blue Jays is using a bullpen game. Spencer Miles is expected to cover about 2.7 innings, leaving roughly 6.3 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.8/10 risk with 4.6/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.6/10 for Toronto Blue Jays versus 6.4/10 for Texas Rangers.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Toronto Blue Jays is using a bullpen game. Spencer Miles is expected to cover about 2.7 innings, leaving roughly 6.3 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 7.8/10 risk with 4.6/10 recent efficiency. Because this is Leo's side, bullpen quality is central to the pick. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 4.6/10 for Toronto Blue Jays versus 6.4/10 for Texas Rangers.
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
Pass reasonThis is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so Leo does not publish an official pick here.
New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks
- Leo side
- Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.9/10
- Model probability
- 70.8%
- Market probability
- 52.2%
- Model vs market
- +18.6%
- Current price
- -113
- Pitcher edge
- Arizona Diamondbacks by 17 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.8/10 and New York Yankees is 5.6/10.
Why Leo made this decisionArizona Diamondbacks is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 70.8% win probability, the market is at 52.2%, and the setup carries a 6.9/10 Lab Rating. Arizona Diamondbacks has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 17 rating points. Bullpen risk is elevated but not decisive. Arizona Diamondbacks is 6.2/10 and New York Yankees is 4.7/10. Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 21.2 points from 92.0% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 70.8%.
Risk noteNo model can see every live lineup, injury, or late bullpen availability update. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Patrick Sandoval Under 4.5 -158
- Leo side
- Tampa Bay Rays Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 6.8/10
- Model probability
- 73.5%
- Market probability
- 57.6%
- Model vs market
- +15.9%
- Current price
- -142
- Pitcher edge
- Tampa Bay Rays by 25 points
- Bullpen read
- Tampa Bay Rays carries the heavier bullpen workload, 7.3/10 versus 4.6/10, which adds late-game risk. Tampa Bay Rays has used 23.3 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 7 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionTampa Bay Rays is worth monitoring, but it does not clear every requirement for an official pick. Leo projects 73.5% win probability, the market is at 57.6%, and the setup carries a 6.8/10 Lab Rating. Tampa Bay Rays has the stronger starting pitcher matchup by 25 rating points. Tampa Bay Rays carries the higher-risk bullpen, 6.5/10 versus 4.2/10. Recent context: 23.3 relief innings over the last 7 days, 7 back-to-back arms. Tampa Bay Rays's pen has been effective lately (6.6/10 efficiency). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.7 points from 97.1% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.5%.
Risk notePrimary caution: bullpen fatigue adds late-game caution. Recheck official news before first pitch.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Jonah Tong Under 4.5 -135
- Leo side
- Philadelphia Phillies Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.3/10
- Model probability
- 66.9%
- Market probability
- 60.8%
- Model vs market
- +6.1%
- Current price
- -165
- Pitcher edge
- Philadelphia Phillies by 10 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Philadelphia Phillies is 7.4/10 and New York Mets is 7.0/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros
- Leo side
- Atlanta Braves Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 5.1/10
- Model probability
- 57.5%
- Market probability
- 41.8%
- Model vs market
- +15.6%
- Current price
- +136
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Atlanta Braves has the fresher bullpen, 5.7/10 versus 8.7/10. Houston Astros has used 29.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
- Leo side
- Chicago Cubs Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.9/10
- Model probability
- 63.2%
- Market probability
- 59.0%
- Model vs market
- +4.2%
- Current price
- -154
- Pitcher edge
- Chicago Cubs by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Chicago Cubs has the fresher bullpen, 5.0/10 versus 7.1/10. Cincinnati Reds has used 30.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Michael Wacha Over 4.5 -133
- Leo side
- Kansas City Royals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.5/10
- Model probability
- 54.9%
- Market probability
- 53.0%
- Model vs market
- +1.9%
- Current price
- -120
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 3 points
- Bullpen read
- Kansas City Royals has the fresher bullpen, 5.1/10 versus 9.7/10. Pittsburgh Pirates has used 33.7 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 6 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionBullpen game impact
Pittsburgh Pirates is using a bullpen game. Lake Bachar is expected to cover about 2.1 innings, leaving roughly 6.9 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 9.5/10 risk with 5.4/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Kansas City Royals. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 2.9/10 for Kansas City Royals versus 5.4/10 for Pittsburgh Pirates.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pittsburgh Pirates is using a bullpen game. Lake Bachar is expected to cover about 2.1 innings, leaving roughly 6.9 innings to the bullpen. The pen carries 9.5/10 risk with 5.4/10 recent efficiency. That heavy bullpen exposure strengthens the case for Kansas City Royals. The bullpen efficiency comparison is 2.9/10 for Kansas City Royals versus 5.4/10 for Pittsburgh Pirates.
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals
Official markets
Pitcher Ks: Quinn Mathews Under 5.5 -133
- Leo side
- St. Louis Cardinals Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 4.1/10
- Model probability
- 62.0%
- Market probability
- 53.8%
- Model vs market
- +8.2%
- Current price
- -121
- Pitcher edge
- St. Louis Cardinals by 9 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. St. Louis Cardinals is 7.8/10 and Washington Nationals is 8.4/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
- Leo side
- Miami Marlins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.8/10
- Model probability
- 58.4%
- Market probability
- 41.6%
- Model vs market
- +16.8%
- Current price
- +140
- Pitcher edge
- Miami Marlins by 8 points
- Bullpen read
- Both bullpens are heavily taxed. Miami Marlins is 8.4/10 and San Diego Padres is 9.6/10, so late-game volatility is elevated on both sides.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
- Leo side
- Minnesota Twins Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 3.1/10
- Model probability
- 53.0%
- Market probability
- 51.5%
- Model vs market
- +1.4%
- Current price
- -110
- Pitcher edge
- No clear SP edge by 1 points
- Bullpen read
- Bullpen workload is elevated but not decisive. Minnesota Twins is 8.0/10 and Los Angeles Angels is 6.7/10.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies
- Leo side
- Seattle Mariners Money Line
- Lab Rating
- 2.5/10
- Model probability
- 50.3%
- Market probability
- 59.5%
- Model vs market
- -9.2%
- Current price
- -156
- Pitcher edge
- Colorado Rockies by 4 points
- Bullpen read
- Seattle Mariners has the fresher bullpen, 7.2/10 versus 9.1/10. Colorado Rockies has used 37.0 bullpen innings over the last 7 days with 5 back-to-back arms.
Why Leo made this decisionThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Pass reasonThe combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Model outputs, not promises. Leo provides analysis and education only, not betting advice. Every official pick is graded on the Results page.