MLB matchup analysis
Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at Busch Stadium · 2:15 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Nationals vs Cardinals
The case for St. Louis Cardinals
The case for Washington Nationals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Busch Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Jake Irvin vs Quinn Mathews |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 88°F, 1% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Nationals | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 5 |
| Throws | R | L |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 51 | 60 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.51 | 3.66 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.2 | 8.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 12.5% | 12.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.1% | 21.6% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.6% | 9.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.2 | 3.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.0% | 43.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 57.0% | 56.4% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Quinn Mathews a 9-point edge over Jake Irvin, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.69 vs 1.65) and ERA (3.66 vs 5.51).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Nationals are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.09 against -0.16).
| Metric | Nationals | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 2-8 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.684 | 0.664 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.299 | 0.298 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.0% | 22.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Nationals | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.693 (-0.055 vs szn) | 0.687 (-0.010 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.44 (-0.658 vs szn) | 4.74 (+0.254 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.306 (-0.023 vs szn) | 0.304 |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.6% | 22.8% (+2.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Nationals have been the better offense, 0.306 wOBA to 0.304. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.023 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Nationals | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 73-82 | 75-80 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.09 | -0.16 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.13 | 4.51 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.04 | 4.67 |
| Season OPS | 0.748 | 0.697 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 20.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.774 | 0.690 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Nationals and Cardinals are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Nationals | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.4/10, High risk | 7.8/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.8/10, Effective | 5.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 8.0/10, Tired | 7.6/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 31.0 | 26.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.61 | 3.08 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.39 | 1.41 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.8 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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