MLB matchup analysis
Braves vs Astros Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at Daikin Park · 2:10 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Braves vs Astros
The case for Atlanta Braves
The case for Houston Astros
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Daikin Park |
| Starting pitchers | Martín Pérez vs Hunter Brown |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 89°F, 1% precipitation chance, 2 mph wind from NE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Braves | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5 | 5⅓ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 68 | 68 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.04 | 3.36 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.27 | 1.28 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.5 | 10.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 7.0% | 15.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 17.4% | 28.0% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.3% | 12.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.9 | 4.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 52.6% | 61.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 47.4% | 38.1% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Hunter Brown a 0-point edge over Martín Pérez, driven mainly by K/9 (10.5 vs 6.5) and K-BB% (15.9% vs 7.0%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Braves are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Astros are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Braves carry the better run differential per game (+0.76 against -0.37).
| Metric | Braves | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.707 | 0.724 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.310 | 0.315 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.4% | 23.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Braves | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.718 | 0.705 (-0.018 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.93 (-0.674 vs szn) | 3.68 (-0.719 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.316 | 0.307 (-0.010 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.8% | 23.0% (+1.2% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Braves have been the better offense, 0.316 wOBA to 0.307.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Braves | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 91-64 | 77-78 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.76 | -0.37 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.63 | 4.43 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.87 | 4.79 |
| Season OPS | 0.723 | 0.723 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.739 | 0.709 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Braves and Astros are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Braves | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.7/10, Normal | 8.7/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 4.2/10, Below average | 3.6/10, Below average |
| Combined risk | 6.1/10, Normal | 9.4/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 22.3 | 29.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 2 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 5.24 | 6.52 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.39 | 1.28 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.9 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every Leo pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. Leo provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.