MLB matchup analysis
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 1:40 PM ET
Leo prediction: Tampa Bay Rays moneyline
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for Boston Red Sox
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Tampa Bay Rays remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.8/10: conviction 9.23, pitching plan 25.33, offense 33.6. Leo projects 73.5% against a 57.6% no-vig market number, a 15.9% model edge at -142. Tampa Bay Rays owns the starting pitcher edge by 25 points. Bullpen read: Adds caution. Tampa Bay Rays's pen efficiency: Effective (6.6/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 23.7 points from 97.1% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 73.5%. Lineup check: Tampa Bay Rays is near its season form (+0.010 OPS); Boston Red Sox is in a cold stretch (-0.082 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Patrick Sandoval vs Griffin Jax |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 87°F, 11% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 41 | 70 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.40 | 3.66 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.77 | 1.17 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.3 | 9.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 11.5% | 18.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.4% | 25.7% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.8% | 7.4% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.5 | 2.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.4% | 50.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 58.6% | 49.5% |
Pitcher edge: Leo gives Griffin Jax a 29-point edge over Patrick Sandoval, driven mainly by WHIP (1.17 vs 1.77) and BB/9 (2.7 vs 4.5).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Red Sox are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.54 against +0.51).
| Metric | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 8-2 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.641 | 0.742 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.289 | 0.325 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.3 | 5.2 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.0% | 19.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.692 (-0.029 vs szn) | 0.716 (-0.017 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.52 (-0.823 vs szn) | 4.57 (+0.010 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.308 (-0.011 vs szn) | 0.315 (-0.008 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.6% | 17.6% (-0.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.315 wOBA to 0.308.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 84-71 | 94-60 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.54 | +0.51 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.37 | 4.56 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.83 | 4.05 |
| Season OPS | 0.723 | 0.732 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.5% | 18.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.714 | 0.690 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Red Sox and Rays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 4.6/10, Normal | 7.3/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.9/10, Effective | 6.6/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 4.2/10, Normal | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 18.3 | 23.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 7 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.45 | 2.70 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.42 | 0.86 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.6 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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