MLB matchup analysis
Royals vs Pirates Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at PNC Park · 1:35 PM ET
Leo decision: Pass on Royals vs Pirates
The case for Kansas City Royals
The case for Pittsburgh Pirates
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Game information
| Matchup | Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|
| Date | Sunday, September 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 PM ET |
| Venue | PNC Park |
| Starting pitchers | Michael Wacha vs Lake Bachar |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 74°F, 33% precipitation chance, 8 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Royals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Opener / bullpen game |
| Expected innings | 6⅓ | 2 |
| Throws | R | R |
| Leo pitcher score (higher is better) | 73 | 69 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.32 | 3.56 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.1 | 9.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.3% | 15.1% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.7% | 25.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.4% | 10.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.3 | 3.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.5% | 45.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 58.5% | 54.8% |
Pitching plan edge: Leo gives Michael Wacha the edge over the Pittsburgh Pirates pitching plan (14 points on Leo's pitcher score). Lake Bachar is projected for only 2 innings, with the Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Michael Wacha's own line against the Pittsburgh Pirates blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Pittsburgh Pirates, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Lake Bachar (about 2 innings for the starter), so Leo grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 4.56 rather than Lake Bachar's own 3.56. Whole-game, that is 4.27 for the Kansas City Royals against 4.56 on the other side, so the blended read leans Kansas City Royals.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Royals are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over the last 15 days; Pirates are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Pirates carry the better run differential per game (+0.18 against -0.65).
| Metric | Royals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.651 | 0.783 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.290 | 0.345 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.4% | 19.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Royals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.721 (+0.008 vs szn) | 0.703 (-0.033 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.19 (-0.007 vs szn) | 3.67 (-1.109 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.318 | 0.314 (-0.013 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.1% | 23.7% |
Over the last 30 days the Royals have been the better offense, 0.318 wOBA to 0.314.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Royals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 67-88 | 78-77 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.65 | +0.18 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.21 | 4.80 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.86 | 4.62 |
| Season OPS | 0.713 | 0.736 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.0% | 24.0% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.722 | 0.754 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Royals and Pirates are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Royals | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.1/10, Normal | 9.7/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 2.9/10, Struggling | 5.4/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.2/10, Tired | 9.5/10, High risk |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 17.3 | 33.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.75 | 3.48 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.67 | 1.34 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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