MLB matchup analysis
Cardinals vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 10:10 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Cardinals vs Dodgers
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for St. Louis Cardinals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so LyDia does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Cardinals 8, Dodgers 6
How the analysis held up
St. Louis Cardinals won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Los Angeles Dodgers), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Brycen Mautz: 7.0 IP, 4 ER (5.14 ERA) against 1.0 IP, 3 ER (27.00 ERA). The edge held up. Neither starter actually pitched well tonight, though — this is a smaller-of-two-bads comparison, not a starter who dealt.
The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 2 earned runs over 9.0 innings (2.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 3 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (9.00 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Los Angeles Dodgers pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
St. Louis Cardinals scored 8 in a game that went 10 innings — not compared against the 4 pregame projection, which assumed nine.
Los Angeles Dodgers scored 6 in a game that went 10 innings — not compared against the 4 pregame projection, which assumed nine.
Likely driver: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 5.14 ERA, and the Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen allowed 3 earned runs over 3.0 relief innings (9.00 ERA), which was not flagged pregame but showed up anyway.
Game information
| Matchup | St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 2, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 PM ET |
| Venue | UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Brycen Mautz vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 72°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Cardinals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Role unknown | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 6⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 32 | 82 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 9.00 | 2.56 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 2.00 | 0.89 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 15.0 | 8.7 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 24.1% | 19.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 34.5% | 25.2% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 10.3% | 5.9% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 28.6% | 52.8% |
| Fly-ball rate | 71.4% | 47.2% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Yoshinobu Yamamoto a 50-point edge over Brycen Mautz, driven mainly by ERA (2.56 vs 9.00) and WHIP (0.89 vs 2.00).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Dodgers are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.05 against -0.06).
| Metric | Cardinals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.709 | 0.674 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.312 | 0.303 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.2 | 4.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.4% | 21.5% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Cardinals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.741 (+0.041 vs szn) | 0.700 (-0.058 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.29 (+0.779 vs szn) | 4.15 (-0.773 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.326 (+0.015 vs szn) | 0.311 (-0.022 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.1% (+1.4% vs szn) | 20.6% |
Over the last 30 days the Cardinals have been the better offense, 0.326 wOBA to 0.311. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.015 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Cardinals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 69-70 | 82-56 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.06 | +1.05 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.51 | 4.92 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.56 | 3.87 |
| Season OPS | 0.700 | 0.756 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.7% | 20.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.690 | 0.740 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Cardinals and Dodgers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Cardinals | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.8/10, Tired | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 4.5/10, Average | 5.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.1/10, Tired | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 26.7 | 21.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 7 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.73 | 3.38 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.43 | 1.31 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.3 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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