MLB matchup analysis
Yankees vs Angels Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at Angel Stadium · 9:38 PM ET
LyDia prediction: New York Yankees moneyline
The case for New York Yankees
The case for Los Angeles Angels
What to watch
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Yankees is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 69.0% model win probability and 8.4/10 Lab Rating. LyDia projects 69.0% against a 59.8% no-vig market number, a 9.3% model edge at -156. New York Yankees owns the starting pitcher edge by 10 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. New York Yankees's pen efficiency: Effective (5.7/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 18.8 points from 87.9% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 69.0%. Lineup check: New York Yankees is a touch above its season form (+0.039 OPS); Los Angeles Angels is a touch below its season form (-0.025 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Yankees 6, Angels 3
How the analysis held up
New York Yankees won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Cam Schlittler (New York Yankees), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Reid Detmers: 8.0 IP, 1 ER (1.13 ERA) against 7.0 IP, 1 ER (1.29 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Los Angeles Angels bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 4 earned runs over 3.0 innings (12.00 ERA) — the risk read showed up. Note: 1 of the runs charged to the Los Angeles Angels pitching staff overall was unearned — not something the bullpen's stuff should be blamed for.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 2, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:38 PM ET |
| Venue | Angel Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Cam Schlittler vs Reid Detmers |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 75°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 84 | 74 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.09 | 3.54 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 11.1 | 10.1 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 24.4% | 20.8% |
| K% (higher is better) | 30.9% | 27.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.5% | 7.0% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.3% | 39.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 52.7% | 60.1% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Cam Schlittler a 10-point edge over Reid Detmers, driven mainly by ERA (2.09 vs 3.54) and K-BB% (24.4% vs 20.8%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Yankees are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 5.3 runs per game over the last 15 days; Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Yankees carry the better run differential per game (+0.82 against -0.57).
| Metric | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 2-8 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 7-3 on the road | 1-9 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.760 | 0.656 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.335 | 0.293 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 5.3 | 4.4 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 25.4% | 25.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.719 | 0.618 (-0.062 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.43 (-0.114 vs szn) | 3.61 (-0.471 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.317 | 0.277 (-0.025 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 25.8% (+1.1% vs szn) | 25.1% |
Over the last 30 days the Yankees have been the better offense, 0.317 wOBA to 0.277. Yankees are striking out at 25.8% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 79-60 | 53-86 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.82 | -0.57 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.54 | 4.08 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.72 | 4.65 |
| Season OPS | 0.721 | 0.681 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 24.7% | 25.2% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.731 | 0.682 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Yankees and Angels are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Yankees | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.7/10, Tired | 5.5/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.7/10, Effective | 2.0/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 6.4/10, Tired | 7.0/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 29.0 | 18.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 5 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.41 | 7.36 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.14 | 2.02 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.4 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
All matchups →Every LyDia pick, graded in public
Free daily model card by email, or open today's full slate. Membership adds delivery before first pitch.
Model outputs are not guarantees. LyDia provides analysis and education only. Every official pick remains visible on the Results page. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.