MLB matchup analysis
Mets vs Rays Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at Tropicana Field · 6:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Mets vs Rays
The case for Tampa Bay Rays
The case for New York Mets
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so LyDia does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Mets 10, Rays 4
How the analysis held up
New York Mets won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
Justin Hagenman (New York Mets), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Griffin Jax: 3.0 IP, 1 ER (3.00 ERA) against 2.2 IP, 3 ER (10.13 ERA). The edge held up.
New York Mets scored 10, 6.7 more than the 3.3 pregame projection.
Likely driver: Griffin Jax, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 10.13 ERA, and New York Mets's offense scored 6.7 more runs than projected.
Game information
| Matchup | New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 2, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Tropicana Field |
| Starting pitchers | Justin Hagenman vs Griffin Jax |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 79°F, 80% precipitation chance, 2 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Limited starter |
| Expected innings | 3 | 4⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 70 | 65 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.00 | 4.10 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.0 | 9.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 8.3% | 17.4% |
| K% (higher is better) | 16.7% | 25.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 8.3% | 8.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.0 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 14.3% | 52.0% |
| Fly-ball rate | 85.7% | 48.0% |
Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives the New York Mets pitching plan the edge over Griffin Jax (5 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Justin Hagenman is projected for only 3 innings, with the New York Mets bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the New York Mets blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Griffin Jax's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the New York Mets, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Justin Hagenman (about 3 innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 3.88 rather than Justin Hagenman's own 3.00. Whole-game, that is 3.51 for the Tampa Bay Rays against 3.88 on the other side, so the blended read leans Tampa Bay Rays.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Rays are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Rays carry the better run differential per game (+0.37 against -0.36).
| Metric | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.662 | 0.675 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.292 | 0.298 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.7% | 15.8% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.742 (+0.047 vs szn) | 0.746 (+0.013 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.44 (+0.323 vs szn) | 5.14 (+0.625 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.326 (+0.019 vs szn) | 0.327 |
| K% (lower is better) | 23.4% (+0.7% vs szn) | 15.6% (-2.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Rays have been the better offense, 0.327 wOBA to 0.326.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 62-77 | 83-55 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.36 | +0.37 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.12 | 4.52 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.48 | 4.15 |
| Season OPS | 0.693 | 0.733 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.7% | 18.5% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.692 | 0.754 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mets and Rays are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Mets | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.7/10, Normal | 7.0/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.3/10, Average | 6.8/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 5.6/10, Normal | 6.1/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 24.0 | 20.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.75 | 1.80 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.25 | 1.05 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 4.9 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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