MLB matchup analysis
Padres vs Reds Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at Great American Ball Park · 12:40 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Padres vs Reds
The case for San Diego Padres
The case for Cincinnati Reds
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Padres 3, Reds 7
How the analysis held up
Cincinnati Reds won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
Casey Mize (San Diego Padres) was LyDia's favored starter by pitcher score, but Brandon Williamson actually pitched better tonight: 5.1 IP, 3 ER (5.06 ERA) against 4.0 IP, 4 ER (9.00 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game. Both starters struggled; this was not a case of one clean outing beating one bad one.
The San Diego Padres bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 3 earned runs allowed over 4.0 relief innings (6.75 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The Cincinnati Reds bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 0 earned runs over 3.2 innings (0.00 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Likely driver: Casey Mize, the pick's own starter, was rocked for a 9.00 ERA, and the Cincinnati Reds bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 3.2 innings).
Game information
| Matchup | San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, September 2, 2026 |
| First pitch | 12:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Great American Ball Park |
| Starting pitchers | Casey Mize vs Brandon Williamson |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 88°F, 0% precipitation chance, 4 mph wind from SW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Padres | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | R | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 71 | 35 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.64 | 5.94 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.12 | 1.65 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.9 | 6.5 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.5% | 1.3% |
| K% (higher is better) | 21.6% | 15.8% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 6.0% | 14.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.2 | 5.9 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 34.5% | 35.7% |
| Fly-ball rate | 65.5% | 64.3% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Casey Mize a 36-point edge over Brandon Williamson, driven mainly by BB/9 (2.2 vs 5.9) and K-BB% (15.5% vs 1.3%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Padres are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Reds are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Padres carry the better run differential per game (+0.07 against -0.77).
| Metric | Padres | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 4-6 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.694 | 0.728 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.307 | 0.320 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 4.6 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 23.0% | 24.2% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Padres | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.721 (+0.019 vs szn) | 0.681 (-0.022 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.36 (+0.114 vs szn) | 4.10 (-0.047 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.319 (+0.008 vs szn) | 0.301 (-0.010 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.2% (-1.6% vs szn) | 25.6% |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.319 wOBA to 0.301. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.008 wOBA). Reds are striking out at 25.6% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Padres | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 73-66 | 66-73 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.07 | -0.77 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.24 | 4.15 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.17 | 4.92 |
| Season OPS | 0.702 | 0.702 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.8% | 25.3% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.687 | 0.691 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Padres and Reds are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Padres | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.3/10, Tired | 5.9/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 5.0/10, Average | 1.9/10, Struggling |
| Combined risk | 6.3/10, Tired | 7.5/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.7 | 25.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.48 | 8.64 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.60 | 1.72 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model and market are close. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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