MLB matchup analysis
Guardians vs Rockies Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, August 22, 2026 at Coors Field · 8:10 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Cleveland Guardians moneyline
The case for Cleveland Guardians
The case for Colorado Rockies
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Cleveland Guardians remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.8/10: conviction 20, pitching plan 20, bullpen 10.36, offense 17.83. LyDia projects 74.4% against a 57.0% no-vig market number, a 17.4% model edge at -139. Cleveland Guardians owns the starting pitcher edge by 26 points. Bullpen read: Elevated volatility. Cleveland Guardians's pen efficiency: Dominant (7.6/10). Lineup check: Cleveland Guardians is a touch above its season form (+0.027 OPS); Colorado Rockies is a touch below its season form (-0.042 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, August 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Coors Field |
| Starting pitchers | Tanner Bibee vs Gabriel Hughes |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 91°F, 22% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from SE. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Guardians | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅔ | 5 |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 67 | 41 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.01 | 6.69 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.15 | 1.38 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.0 | 7.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 12.1% | 12.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.1% | 20.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.0% | 7.9% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.9% | 46.8% |
| Fly-ball rate | 59.1% | 53.2% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Tanner Bibee a 26-point edge over Gabriel Hughes, driven mainly by ERA (4.01 vs 6.69) and expected innings (5.8 vs 5.0).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Guardians are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; Rockies are 4-6 in their last 10, averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form. On the season Guardians carry the better run differential per game (-0.12 against -1.02).
| Metric | Guardians | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.711 | 0.698 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.317 | 0.310 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 16.3% | 21.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Guardians | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.656 (-0.028 vs szn) | 0.717 (-0.023 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.85 (-0.154 vs szn) | 4.88 (+0.094 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.296 (-0.009 vs szn) | 0.315 (-0.010 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 19.0% (-2.6% vs szn) | 23.1% |
Over the last 30 days the Rockies have been the better offense, 0.315 wOBA to 0.296. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.010 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Guardians | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 63-66 | 50-78 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.12 | -1.02 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.00 | 4.78 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.12 | 5.80 |
| Season OPS | 0.684 | 0.740 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 22.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.690 | 0.757 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Guardians and Rockies are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Guardians | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 7.8/10, Tired | 6.9/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 7.6/10, Dominant | 5.5/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 6.5/10, Tired | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.0 | 27.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 8 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 0.95 | 3.29 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.84 | 1.35 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.3 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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