MLB matchup analysis
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, August 22, 2026 at loanDepot park · 4:10 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Miami Marlins moneyline
The case for Miami Marlins
The case for Washington Nationals
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Miami Marlins is a value watch, not an official pick. LyDia projects 74.2% against a 62.2% no-vig market number, a 12.0% model edge at -175. Lab Rating 7.6/10: conviction 20, pitching plan 20, bullpen 12.66, offense 23.35. Miami Marlins's pen efficiency: Average (4.7/10). It stayed a value watch because Lab Rating is 7.6/10, below the 8.0/10 official-pick gate. Lineup check: Miami Marlins is near its season form (+0.003 OPS); Washington Nationals is in a cold stretch (-0.066 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, August 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 PM ET |
| Venue | loanDepot park |
| Starting pitchers | Jake Irvin vs Eury Pérez |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 90°F, 2% precipitation chance, 10 mph wind from SE. This venue has a roof, but the roof status is not confirmed. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Nationals | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 49 | 74 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.80 | 3.23 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.36 | 1.11 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.1 | 9.8 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 13.1% | 17.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 23.0% | 26.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.9% | 42.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 59.1% | 57.1% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Eury Pérez a 25-point edge over Jake Irvin, driven mainly by ERA (3.23 vs 5.80) and WHIP (1.11 vs 1.36).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Nationals are 2-8 in their last 10, averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days, and hitting below their season form; Marlins are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.12 against +0.12).
| Metric | Nationals | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 2-8 on the road | 8-2 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.692 | 0.730 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.307 | 0.327 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.3% | 22.9% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Nationals | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.713 (-0.045 vs szn) | 0.706 (-0.021 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.11 (-1.104 vs szn) | 4.08 (-0.287 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.316 (-0.017 vs szn) | 0.316 (-0.006 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 22.5% (+0.8% vs szn) | 21.7% |
Over the last 30 days the Nationals have been the better offense, 0.316 wOBA to 0.316. They are cooling off against their own season line (-0.017 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Nationals | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 61-69 | 65-64 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.12 | +0.12 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 5.22 | 4.36 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 5.09 | 4.25 |
| Season OPS | 0.758 | 0.727 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.7% | 21.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.749 | 0.735 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Nationals and Marlins are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Nationals | Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 8.3/10, High risk | 6.5/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.5/10, Effective | 4.7/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 8.1/10, Tired | 6.7/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 26.0 | 25.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 4 |
| 7-day ERA | 3.12 | 4.62 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.42 | 1.34 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.9 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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