MLB matchup analysis
Twins vs Padres Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, August 22, 2026 at Petco Park · 8:40 PM ET
LyDia prediction: San Diego Padres moneyline
The case for San Diego Padres
The case for Minnesota Twins
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
San Diego Padres is an official moneyline pick because it clears both gates: 74.2% model win probability and 8.1/10 Lab Rating. LyDia projects 74.2% against a 59.3% no-vig market number, a 14.9% model edge at -156. San Diego Padres owns the starting pitcher edge by 19 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. San Diego Padres's pen efficiency: Average (5.2/10). Lineup check: San Diego Padres is swinging a hot bat (+0.079 OPS); Minnesota Twins is near its season form (+0.008 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, August 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:40 PM ET |
| Venue | Petco Park |
| Starting pitchers | Dean Kremer vs Casey Mize |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 80°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from NW. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Twins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 56 | 75 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 5.40 | 3.18 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.18 | 1.07 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 8.9 | 8.4 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 17.1% | 17.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 24.4% | 23.3% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.4% | 6.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.5% | 35.5% |
| Fly-ball rate | 53.5% | 64.5% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Casey Mize a 19-point edge over Dean Kremer, driven mainly by HR/9 (0.62 vs 2.19) and ERA (3.18 vs 5.40).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Twins are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over the last 15 days; Padres are 7-3 in their last 10, averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. On the season Padres carry the better run differential per game (+0.05 against -0.35).
| Metric | Twins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 3-7 on the road | 9-1 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.731 | 0.783 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.325 | 0.344 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 21.5% | 20.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Twins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.677 (-0.046 vs szn) | 0.758 (+0.054 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.81 (-0.797 vs szn) | 4.74 (+0.485 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.302 (-0.018 vs szn) | 0.336 (+0.024 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.4% (-1.0% vs szn) | 19.9% (-2.0% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Padres have been the better offense, 0.336 wOBA to 0.302. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.024 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Twins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 63-66 | 69-60 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.35 | +0.05 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.60 | 4.26 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.95 | 4.20 |
| Season OPS | 0.723 | 0.704 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.4% | 21.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.735 | 0.711 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Twins and Padres are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Twins | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.2/10, Tired | 4.0/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.0/10, Effective | 5.2/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 5.7/10, Normal | 3.9/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 21.7 | 19.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 1 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.91 | 3.72 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.15 | 1.34 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.3 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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