MLB matchup analysis
Mets vs White Sox Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, August 22, 2026 at Rate Field · 7:10 PM ET
LyDia prediction: New York Mets moneyline
The case for New York Mets
The case for Chicago White Sox
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
New York Mets remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 6.5/10: conviction 20, pitching plan 12, bullpen 16.89, offense 15.75. LyDia projects 70.1% against a 48.7% no-vig market number, a 21.4% model edge at +104. New York Mets owns the starting pitcher edge by 12 points. Bullpen read: Supports LyDia side. New York Mets's pen efficiency: Effective (6.9/10). Lineup check: New York Mets is a touch above its season form (+0.023 OPS); Chicago White Sox is swinging a hot bat (+0.055 OPS).
Game information
| Matchup | New York Mets at Chicago White Sox |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, August 22, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Rate Field |
| Starting pitchers | Christian Scott vs Luis Castillo |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 75°F, 4% precipitation chance, 5 mph wind from N. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Mets | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 4⅔ | 5⅓ |
| Throws | R | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 68 | 56 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.51 | 4.99 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.29 | 1.37 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 11.2 | 8.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 19.1% | 13.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 28.6% | 20.1% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 9.5% | 7.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.6% | 44.2% |
| Fly-ball rate | 61.4% | 55.8% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Christian Scott a 12-point edge over Luis Castillo, driven mainly by K/9 (11.2 vs 8.0) and HR/9 (0.85 vs 1.48).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table. Highlighted cells mark a gap big enough to matter. K% and BB% are strikeout and walk rate as a share of batters faced -- K-BB% is the two combined into one skill number. HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings. Ground-ball and fly-ball rate are neither good nor bad on their own: high ground-ball pitchers trade strikeouts for double plays and fewer home runs, and on this data source the two rates are complementary (they add to 100%), not independent reads.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Mets are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form; White Sox are 6-4 in their last 10, averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days, and swinging above their season form. On the season White Sox carry the better run differential per game (+0.37 against -0.34).
| Metric | Mets | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 6-4 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.717 | 0.781 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.318 | 0.343 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 4.8 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 22.6% | 23.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Mets | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.724 (+0.030 vs szn) | 0.727 |
| Runs per game | 4.46 (+0.314 vs szn) | 4.74 (-0.033 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.320 (+0.012 vs szn) | 0.321 |
| K% (lower is better) | 24.3% (+1.6% vs szn) | 24.4% (+0.5% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the White Sox have been the better offense, 0.321 wOBA to 0.320. White Sox are striking out at 24.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Mets | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 58-71 | 67-61 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.34 | +0.37 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.15 | 4.77 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.49 | 4.41 |
| Season OPS | 0.694 | 0.726 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 22.7% | 23.9% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.692 | 0.724 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Mets and White Sox are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Mets | White Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.3/10, Normal | 8.4/10, High risk |
| Efficiency | 6.9/10, Effective | 6.9/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 4.4/10, Normal | 7.5/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 19.7 | 36.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 3 | 9 |
| 7-day ERA | 2.29 | 1.73 |
| 7-day WHIP | 0.81 | 1.05 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.2 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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