MLB matchup analysis
Astros vs Mets Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at Citi Field · 4:10 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Astros vs Mets
The case for New York Mets
The case for Houston Astros
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so LyDia does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Astros 2, Mets 6
How the analysis held up
New York Mets won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Nolan McLean (New York Mets), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Bennett Sousa: 7.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 0.2 IP, 1 ER (13.50 ERA). The edge held up.
The Houston Astros bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 5 earned runs over 7.1 innings (6.14 ERA) — the risk read showed up.
New York Mets scored 6, 2.1 more than the 3.9 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Houston Astros at New York Mets |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, August 29, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Citi Field |
| Starting pitchers | Bennett Sousa vs Nolan McLean |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 73°F, 0% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 1 | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 31 | 75 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 6.52 | 3.06 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.91 | 1.12 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 9.8 | 9.9 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 9.7% | 17.2% |
| K% (higher is better) | 22.6% | 26.7% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 12.9% | 9.5% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 5.6 | 3.5 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 28.6% | 54.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 71.4% | 45.4% |
Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives Nolan McLean the edge over the Houston Astros pitching plan (31 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Bennett Sousa is projected for only 1 innings, with the Houston Astros bullpen covering the rest -- this compares Nolan McLean's own line against the Houston Astros blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Houston Astros, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Bennett Sousa (about 1 innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 5.52 rather than Bennett Sousa's own 6.52. Whole-game, that is 2.99 for the New York Mets against 5.52 on the other side, so the blended read leans New York Mets.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Astros are 5-5 in their last 10 and averaging 4.4 runs per game over the last 15 days; Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 and averaging 3.3 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (-0.34 against -0.37).
| Metric | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 6-4 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.688 | 0.683 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.299 | 0.302 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.4 | 3.3 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 24.4% | 23.6% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.713 (-0.012 vs szn) | 0.717 (+0.023 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.35 (-0.198 vs szn) | 4.07 (-0.036 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.312 (-0.006 vs szn) | 0.316 (+0.009 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 21.1% (-0.5% vs szn) | 23.6% (+0.9% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Mets have been the better offense, 0.316 wOBA to 0.312. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.009 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 68-67 | 60-75 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | -0.34 | -0.37 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.54 | 4.11 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.88 | 4.48 |
| Season OPS | 0.727 | 0.693 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.6% | 22.7% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.733 | 0.694 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Astros and Mets are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Astros | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.4/10, Tired | 6.2/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 3.8/10, Below average | 5.8/10, Effective |
| Combined risk | 7.0/10, Tired | 5.8/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 21.7 | 22.7 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 5 |
| 7-day ERA | 6.23 | 2.78 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.29 | 1.37 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.8 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
More games today
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