MLB matchup analysis
Diamondbacks vs Giants (Game 2) Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at Oracle Park · 10:05 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Diamondbacks vs Giants
The case for San Francisco Giants
The case for Arizona Diamondbacks
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
This is a bullpen game -- no confirmed traditional starter, so LyDia does not publish an official pick here.
Final result
Diamondbacks 2, Giants 7
How the analysis held up
San Francisco Giants won, the side LyDia's model favored.
LyDia's two internal reads disagreed pregame by 8.9 points — the team-strength model favored San Francisco Giants, the run-projection model favored Arizona Diamondbacks. The team-strength model had the winner here.
Mitch Bratt (No clear pitching-plan edge) was LyDia's favored starter by pitcher score, but Yunior Marte actually pitched better tonight: 4.2 IP, 1 ER (1.93 ERA) against 4.1 IP, 3 ER (6.23 ERA). The edge did not show up in this game.
The San Francisco Giants bullpen was flagged as elevated risk pregame (Tired). In relief it actually allowed 1 earned run over 4.1 innings (2.08 ERA) — the risk read did not show up on the scoreboard tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks scored 2, 2.4 fewer than the 4.4 pregame projection.
San Francisco Giants scored 7, 3.1 more than the 3.9 pregame projection.
Game information
| Matchup | Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, August 29, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Oracle Park |
| Starting pitchers | Mitch Bratt vs Yunior Marte |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 64°F, 0% precipitation chance, 14 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Diamondbacks | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Limited starter | Role unknown |
| Expected innings | 4⅓ | 4⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 47 | 50 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 4.54 | Not available |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.56 | Not available |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.4 | Not available |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 1.7% | Not available |
| K% (higher is better) | 15.9% | Not available |
| BB% (lower is better) | 14.2% | Not available |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 5.7 | Not available |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 1.1 | Not available |
| Ground-ball rate | 29.4% | Not available |
| Fly-ball rate | 70.6% | Not available |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Yunior Marte a 3-point edge over Mitch Bratt, driven mainly by expected innings (4.5 vs 4.4).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Diamondbacks are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.7 runs per game over the last 15 days; Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Diamondbacks carry the better run differential per game (+0.04 against -0.54).
| Metric | Diamondbacks | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.741 | 0.708 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.325 | 0.313 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.7 | 4.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 19.2% | 24.0% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Diamondbacks | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.744 (+0.030 vs szn) | 0.651 (-0.061 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 4.59 (+0.057 vs szn) | 3.55 (-0.536 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.328 (+0.013 vs szn) | 0.290 (-0.022 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.8% | 23.0% (+1.6% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Diamondbacks have been the better offense, 0.328 wOBA to 0.290. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.013 wOBA).
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Diamondbacks | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 73-64 | 55-81 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.04 | -0.54 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.53 | 4.09 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 4.49 | 4.63 |
| Season OPS | 0.715 | 0.712 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 19.2% | 21.4% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.688 | 0.663 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Diamondbacks and Giants are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Diamondbacks | Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.9/10, Tired | 7.7/10, Tired |
| Efficiency | 5.1/10, Average | 4.9/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 6.9/10, Tired | 7.8/10, Tired |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 28.0 | 33.3 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 3 |
| 7-day ERA | 4.18 | 4.32 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.21 | 1.35 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 0.8 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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