MLB matchup analysis
Red Sox vs Yankees (Game 2) Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at Yankee Stadium · 7:15 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Boston Red Sox moneyline
The case for Boston Red Sox
The case for New York Yankees
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Boston Red Sox is a value watch, not an official pick. LyDia projects 68.2% against a 45.5% no-vig market number, a 22.8% model edge at +118. Lab Rating 9.0/10: conviction 6.62, pitching plan 30, bullpen 5.67, offense 47.62. Boston Red Sox's pen efficiency: Dominant (7.5/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 18.0 points from 86.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 68.2%. It stayed a value watch under the stricter official-pick review. Lineup check: Boston Red Sox is a touch above its season form (+0.046 OPS); New York Yankees is in a cold stretch (-0.064 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Red Sox 2, Yankees 9
How the analysis held up
New York Yankees won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
Alec Gamboa (Boston Red Sox), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Max Fried: 1.1 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 3.2 IP, 1 ER (2.45 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Boston Red Sox bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 9 earned runs allowed over 6.2 relief innings (12.15 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
The New York Yankees bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 1 earned run allowed over 5.1 relief innings (1.69 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Likely driver: the Boston Red Sox bullpen allowed 9 earned runs over 6.2 relief innings (12.15 ERA), which was not flagged pregame but showed up anyway, and the opposing starter (2.45 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, August 29, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 PM ET |
| Venue | Yankee Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Alec Gamboa vs Max Fried |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 75°F, 0% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Opener / bullpen game | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 1⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 75 | 78 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 1.23 | 2.80 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 0.95 | 1.00 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 6.1 | 8.3 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 10.6% | 15.9% |
| K% (higher is better) | 17.6% | 23.9% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 7.1% | 8.1% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Ground-ball rate | 53.1% | 50.6% |
| Fly-ball rate | 46.9% | 49.4% |
Pitching plan edge: LyDia gives the Boston Red Sox pitching plan the edge over Max Fried (14 points on LyDia's pitcher score). Alec Gamboa is projected for only 1⅓ innings, with the Boston Red Sox bullpen covering the rest -- this compares the Boston Red Sox blended starting-pitcher-and-bullpen quality against Max Fried's own line, not two starters directly.
Blended read: For the Boston Red Sox, the bullpen is projected to throw more of the game than Alec Gamboa (about 1⅓ innings for the starter), so LyDia grades that side on a whole-game effective ERA of 1.93 rather than Alec Gamboa's own 1.23. Whole-game, that is 1.93 for the Boston Red Sox against 2.79 on the other side, so the blended read leans Boston Red Sox.
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.9 runs per game over the last 15 days; Yankees are 6-4 in their last 10 and averaging 3.7 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.73 against +0.75).
| Metric | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.774 | 0.650 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.342 | 0.290 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.9 | 3.7 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 18.9% | 26.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.791 (+0.064 vs szn) | 0.661 (-0.053 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.48 (+1.012 vs szn) | 3.61 (-0.849 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.347 (+0.026 vs szn) | 0.294 (-0.021 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.6% (-2.7% vs szn) | 26.4% (+1.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Red Sox have been the better offense, 0.347 wOBA to 0.294. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.026 wOBA). Yankees are striking out at 26.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 74-61 | 76-59 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.73 | +0.75 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.47 | 4.46 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.74 | 3.71 |
| Season OPS | 0.728 | 0.714 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.3% | 24.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.768 | 0.718 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Red Sox and Yankees are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.8/10, Normal | 5.3/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 7.5/10, Dominant | 5.3/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 4.6/10, Normal | 5.2/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.7 | 24.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 0.44 | 3.75 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.16 | 1.29 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.0 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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