MLB matchup analysis
Dodgers vs Tigers Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at Comerica Park · 1:10 PM ET
LyDia decision: Pass on Dodgers vs Tigers
The case for Los Angeles Dodgers
The case for Detroit Tigers
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
The combined Lab Rating did not clear the official threshold.
Final result
Dodgers 1, Tigers 2
How the analysis held up
Detroit Tigers won. LyDia's model favored the other side.
Keider Montero (No clear pitching-plan edge), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Blake Snell: 5.1 IP, 1 ER (1.69 ERA) against 5.0 IP, 1 ER (1.80 ERA). The edge held up. Both starters were sharp; the edge is a narrow one between two good outings.
The Detroit Tigers bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.2 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
Los Angeles Dodgers scored 1, 2.9 fewer than the 3.9 pregame projection.
Likely driver: the Detroit Tigers bullpen quietly shut the game down (0.00 ERA over 3.2 innings), unflagged pregame, and the opposing starter (1.69 ERA) was sharp when the read expected an edge the other way.
Game information
| Matchup | Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, August 29, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:10 PM ET |
| Venue | Comerica Park |
| Starting pitchers | Blake Snell vs Keider Montero |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 75°F, 0% precipitation chance, 7 mph wind from S. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Dodgers | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 5⅓ | 5⅔ |
| Throws | L | R |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 77 | 75 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 2.42 | 3.24 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.08 | 0.99 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 12.5 | 6.0 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 22.0% | 11.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 33.0% | 16.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 11.0% | 5.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.7% | 44.9% |
| Fly-ball rate | 52.3% | 55.1% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Blake Snell a 2-point edge over Keider Montero, driven mainly by K/9 (12.5 vs 6.0) and K-BB% (22.0% vs 11.0%).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.1 runs per game over the last 15 days; Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 and averaging 3.1 runs per game over the last 15 days. On the season Dodgers carry the better run differential per game (+1.09 against +0.52).
| Metric | Dodgers | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 2-8 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 3-7 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.695 | 0.610 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.309 | 0.272 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.1 | 3.1 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 20.9% | 22.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Dodgers | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.692 (-0.065 vs szn) | 0.702 (-0.014 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 3.86 (-1.025 vs szn) | 4.69 (+0.285 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.305 (-0.027 vs szn) | 0.313 |
| K% (lower is better) | 20.7% | 21.3% (-1.3% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Tigers have been the better offense, 0.313 wOBA to 0.305.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Dodgers | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 81-54 | 62-72 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +1.09 | +0.52 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.88 | 4.41 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.79 | 3.89 |
| Season OPS | 0.759 | 0.715 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 20.5% | 22.6% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.767 | 0.684 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Dodgers and Tigers are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Dodgers | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 6.0/10, Normal | 5.8/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 6.8/10, Effective | 4.8/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 5.1/10, Normal | 5.9/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 18.0 | 25.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 6 | 2 |
| 7-day ERA | 1.50 | 4.68 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.17 | 1.24 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 2.4 runs above the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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