MLB matchup analysis
Red Sox vs Yankees (Game 1) Prediction, Odds and Model Pick
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at Yankee Stadium · 1:05 PM ET
LyDia prediction: Boston Red Sox moneyline
The case for Boston Red Sox
The case for New York Yankees
Why it is not official
Why the setup score is what it is
Why the price is what it is
Read the full model output
Boston Red Sox remains on the watchlist. Lab Rating 7.3/10: conviction 0, pitching plan 22, bullpen 5.53, offense 45.08. LyDia projects 52.9% against a 45.5% no-vig market number, a 7.4% model edge at +118. Boston Red Sox owns the starting pitcher edge by 4 points. Bullpen read: Neutral. Boston Red Sox's pen efficiency: Dominant (7.5/10). Bullpen fatigue moved this probability down 2.4 points from 55.3% (starting pitcher and team strength only) to 52.9%. Lineup check: Boston Red Sox is swinging a hot bat (+0.054 OPS); New York Yankees is a touch below its season form (-0.042 OPS). Recent form supports this side and is included in the unified run projection.
Final result
Red Sox 6, Yankees 0
How the analysis held up
Boston Red Sox won, the side LyDia's model favored.
Jake Bennett (Boston Red Sox), the starter LyDia's pitcher score favored, actually outpitched Carlos Rodón: 6.0 IP, 0 ER (0.00 ERA) against 4.2 IP, 2 ER (3.86 ERA). The edge held up.
The Boston Red Sox bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 0 earned runs allowed over 3.0 relief innings (0.00 ERA) — quietly better than the pregame read implied.
The New York Yankees bullpen was not flagged pregame, but it had a night worth noting: 4 earned runs allowed over 4.1 relief innings (8.31 ERA) — quietly worse than the pregame read implied.
Game information
| Matchup | Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, August 29, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:05 PM ET |
| Venue | Yankee Stadium |
| Starting pitchers | Jake Bennett vs Carlos Rodón |
| Weather | Game-time forecast: 75°F, 0% precipitation chance, 3 mph wind from W. |
Starting pitcher matchup
Full Pitcher Matchup Tool →| Metric | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Pitching plan | Traditional starter | Traditional starter |
| Expected innings | 6 | 5 |
| Throws | L | L |
| LyDia pitcher score (higher is better) | 75 | 68 |
| ERA (lower is better) | 3.27 | 3.20 |
| WHIP (lower is better) | 1.04 | 1.19 |
| K/9 (higher is better) | 7.1 | 9.6 |
| K-BB% (higher is better) | 15.0% | 13.0% |
| K% (higher is better) | 19.8% | 25.5% |
| BB% (lower is better) | 4.8% | 12.6% |
| BB/9 (lower is better) | 1.7 | 4.7 |
| HR/9 (lower is better) | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.7% | 38.4% |
| Fly-ball rate | 55.3% | 61.6% |
Pitcher edge: LyDia gives Jake Bennett a 7-point edge over Carlos Rodón, driven mainly by BB/9 (1.7 vs 4.7) and expected innings (5.9 vs 4.9).
How to read this: the scorecards above name the starters; every number lives in this table.
Strikeout Projections Full strikeout projections →
Same data source as the Pitcher Matchup Tool, where every starter on the slate is compared side by side.
Recent form
Full Stats page →Both sides arrive in similar form. Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 days; Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 and averaging 4.0 runs per game over the last 15 days. Season run differential separates them by almost nothing (+0.73 against +0.75).
| Metric | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Last 10 | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 10 by venue (away team on the road, home team at home) | 5-5 on the road | 5-5 at home |
| OPS, last 15 days | 0.782 | 0.675 |
| wOBA, last 15 days (hot/cold read) | 0.345 | 0.301 |
| Runs per game, last 15 days | 4.8 | 4.0 |
| K% last 15 days (lower is better) | 18.9% | 26.3% |
Last 15 days only. Hot and cold streaks for all 30 teams live on the Stats page.
30-day offense
Full offense tool →| Last 30 days | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | 0.791 (+0.064 vs szn) | 0.661 (-0.053 vs szn) |
| Runs per game | 5.48 (+1.012 vs szn) | 3.61 (-0.849 vs szn) |
| wOBA (model offense input) | 0.347 (+0.026 vs szn) | 0.294 (-0.021 vs szn) |
| K% (lower is better) | 18.6% (-2.7% vs szn) | 26.4% (+1.7% vs szn) |
Over the last 30 days the Red Sox have been the better offense, 0.347 wOBA to 0.294. They are running hot against their own season line (+0.026 wOBA). Yankees are striking out at 26.4% over the window — something the opposing starter can lean on.
Season profile
Full Stats page →| Metric | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 73-61 | 76-58 |
| Run differential / game (team quality) | +0.73 | +0.75 |
| Runs scored / game (offense, season) | 4.47 | 4.46 |
| Runs allowed / game (defense, season, lower better) | 3.74 | 3.71 |
| Season OPS | 0.728 | 0.717 |
| K% season (lower is better) | 21.3% | 24.8% |
| OPS vs opposing hand (season) | 0.770 | 0.725 |
Season-long team quality, not recent form. Run differential and run environment come from the season standings; splits for all 30 teams live on the Stats page, including the run environment table.
The Map
Full interactive map →Every team on today's slate, on any two axes you pick. Red Sox and Yankees are highlighted.
Bullpen matchup
Full Bullpen Fatigue Index →Risk is what the model actually uses: fatigue blended with how well the pen has pitched. High fatigue with high efficiency is a tired pen that is still getting outs.
| Metric | Red Sox | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue | 5.8/10, Normal | 5.3/10, Normal |
| Efficiency | 7.5/10, Dominant | 5.3/10, Average |
| Combined risk | 4.6/10, Normal | 5.2/10, Normal |
| Relief innings, last 7 days | 20.7 | 24.0 |
| Back-to-back arms | 4 | 6 |
| 7-day ERA | 0.44 | 3.75 |
| 7-day WHIP | 1.16 | 1.29 |
Fatigue measures workload. Efficiency measures recent run prevention. Combined risk is what the moneyline and totals systems use.
Run total projection
Full Totals Projections →The model projects 1.8 runs below the market total. A research lean still requires a setup rating of at least 7.0/10. Team totals remain research-only until their graded sample is established.
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